TC Energy Corporation
TRP · NYSE
Next quarter
Reports Nov 5, 2026.
Consensus is $0.59 EPS for Sep 2026 across 4 estimates, ranging $0.52 to $0.64.
TRP Jun 2026
- 11.48%
- -0.97%
- $0.61
- $0.68
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Highlights
- Earnings beat: Reported EPS was $0.68 versus consensus of $0.61, an 11.48% surprise; comparable EPS was $0.94 versus $0.82 a year ago.
- EBITDA growth: Second-quarter comparable EBITDA rose 12% year over year to $2.948 billion from $2.625 billion, while segmented earnings increased 11% to $2.173 billion.
- Outlook raised: TC Energy now expects 2026 comparable EBITDA at the upper end of its $11.6-$11.8 billion range, versus the previously stated range.
- U.S. pipeline momentum: U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines flows increased 5% to 27.0 Bcf/d, with deliveries to LNG facilities up 13% to 3.9 Bcf/d.
- Growth sanctioned: The company approved $0.7 billion of low-risk projects in the quarter, bringing 2026 sanctioned growth to approximately $3 billion.
- Power execution: Bruce Power’s Unit 3 refurbishment entered commercial operation on June 12, seven months ahead of schedule and with a 15% lower cost than the Unit 6 refurbishment.
- Cash generation: Cash flow from operations rose to $2.217 billion from $2.173 billion, while comparable funds generated from operations increased to $1.996 billion from $1.964 billion.
- Dividend: The quarterly common-share dividend increased to $0.8775 from $0.85, equivalent to $3.51 annualized.
Analysis
TC Energy delivered a stronger-than-expected second quarter, with reported EPS of $0.68 versus the $0.61 consensus supplied, a 11.48% beat. On the company’s comparable basis, earnings per share rose to $0.94 from $0.82 in the year-ago quarter, while comparable EBITDA increased 12% to $2.948 billion and segmented earnings grew 11% to $2.173 billion. The quarter also improved on the first quarter: comparable EBITDA was approximately $3.088 billion in Q1, while comparable earnings were approximately $1.031 billion, implying normal sequential seasonality rather than a step-up in earnings.
The print was defined by broad operating execution and a firmer full-year outlook. U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines EBITDA rose to $1.218 billion from $1.089 billion, and Mexico EBITDA more than doubled to $409 million from $319 million, partly reflecting a favourable comparison. TC Energy sanctioned $0.7 billion of new projects, including capacity aimed at data-centre-related gas-fired generation, and said roughly $1.8 billion of projects had entered service year to date. Bruce Power’s early Unit 3 restart further supported the company’s case for reliable, low-risk growth.
Quarterly financial performance
TC Energy’s second-quarter results benefited from stronger contributions across its natural gas portfolio. Comparable EBITDA reached $2.948 billion, up from $2.625 billion in the second quarter of 2025. Comparable earnings increased to $984 million, or $0.94 per share, from $848 million, or $0.82 per share. GAAP net income attributable to common shares was $987 million, or $0.95 per share, compared with $862 million, or $0.83 per share.
The U.S. and Mexico businesses drove most of the segment improvement, while Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines and Power and Energy Solutions were softer on segmented earnings. Sequentially, Q2 comparable EBITDA was below the approximately $3.088 billion generated in Q1, while comparable earnings declined from approximately $1.031 billion; the year-over-year gains therefore matter more than the quarter-to-quarter movement.
- U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines: Comparable EBITDA increased 12% to $1.218 billion from $1.089 billion, supported by higher flows and continued demand from LNG and power markets.
- Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines: Comparable EBITDA rose to $409 million from $319 million, while segmented earnings increased to $397 million from $191 million.
- Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines: Comparable EBITDA grew to $961 million from $923 million, despite segmented earnings declining to $545 million from $551 million.
- Power and Energy Solutions: Comparable EBITDA increased to $361 million from $301 million, although segmented earnings fell to $240 million from $312 million.
Natural gas growth pipeline
TC Energy used the quarter to reinforce its North American natural gas growth strategy. It sanctioned three in-corridor expansion projects costing approximately $0.7 billion in total. The Central Virginia Capacity and Clark projects are designed to serve gas-fired generation, including data-centre demand, while the Canadian NGTL expansion supports growing Western Canadian deliveries. The two U.S. projects are backed by 20-year take-or-pay contracts and have a weighted-average build multiple of approximately 5.8 times.
- Central Virginia Capacity: The Columbia Gas expansion is expected to add up to 0.4 Bcf/d, cost approximately US$0.3 billion and enter service in 2028 and 2030; its expected build multiple is 6.4 times.
- Clark project: The Columbia Gulf expansion is expected to add up to 0.3 Bcf/d, cost approximately US$0.1 billion and enter service in 2028, with an expected 4.4-times build multiple.
- NGTL demand: The Greater Edmonton Area delivery offering for up to approximately 0.26 Bcf/d was fully subscribed, while broader offerings represent approximately 1.0 Bcf/d of marketed delivery capacity.
- Market backdrop: TC Energy estimates North American natural gas demand will grow by approximately 51 Bcf/d from 2025 to 2035, led by LNG exports, gas-fired power generation and industrial activity.
Pipeline operating performance
Higher throughput and reliable operations supported the quarter. Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines deliveries averaged 24.2 Bcf/d, up 1% year over year, while Canadian Mainline Western receipts increased 4% to 4.6 Bcf/d. U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines daily average flows rose 5% to 27.0 Bcf/d, with LNG-facility deliveries up 13% to 3.9 Bcf/d. Mexico flows were lower year over year because of pipeline-flow adjustments, although deliveries to power generation remained stable at 1.4 Bcf/d.
- U.S. records: North Baja reached a record 886 MMcf/d on June 17, while Gillis Access reached a record 1.5 Bcf/d on July 3.
- Projects in service: TC Energy placed approximately $1.8 billion of projects into service in the first half, including Bison XPress in the U.S. and NGTL capacity projects adding approximately 400 MMcf/d.
- Regulatory progress: The Canadian Mainline received approval for a four-year negotiated settlement covering 2027-2030, while ANR’s U.S. rate-case settlement was approved and Great Lakes’ settlement is awaiting expected fourth-quarter approval.
Bruce Power execution
Bruce Power delivered a material project milestone when Unit 3 returned to commercial operation on June 12, seven months ahead of its committed schedule and within budget. TC Energy’s share of equity contributions was $1.1 billion, and the refurbishment cost was 15% below the Unit 6 major component replacement. The performance is expected to return approximately $150 million to Ontario ratepayers through the IESO. Unit 4’s refurbishment remains on time and on budget, while the company is also progressing early work on Bruce C following an additional $300 million of IESO funding.
- Availability: Bruce Power achieved 98.5% availability in the quarter with no forced outage days.
- Refurbishment execution: The project set a CANDU record for calandria tube removal, completing the work 11 days ahead of schedule.
- Cogeneration: The cogeneration fleet operated at 89.6% availability, primarily reflecting planned spring outages.
Outlook and capital allocation
Management now expects to land at the upper end of its 2026 comparable EBITDA guidance range of $11.6-$11.8 billion, while maintaining the expectation that comparable EBITDA and comparable EPS will exceed 2025 levels. Capital expenditures are expected at $6.0-$6.5 billion before non-controlling interests, or $5.5-$6.0 billion net. TC Energy expects approximately $1.6 billion of additional capital to enter service in the second half and remains on track for its long-term 4.75-times debt-to-EBITDA target.
- Growth capital: Approximately $3 billion of low-risk, accretive projects have been sanctioned in 2026, including the $0.7 billion approved in the second quarter.
- Dividend support: The board declared a $0.8775 quarterly dividend, up from $0.85 a year earlier and payable October 30, 2026.
- Financial capacity: First-half comparable funds generated from operations were $4.332 billion versus $3.913 billion a year earlier, against $2.430 billion of capital spending.
