Cheniere Energy, Inc.
LNG · NYSE
Dec 2026
Next quarter
Expected to report Feb 25, 2027 — estimated from last year’s reporting date.
Consensus is $6.18 EPS for Dec 2026 across 7 estimates, ranging $4.11 to $8.88.
LNG Sep 2026
- 13.81%
- +7.11%
- $4.20
- $3.62
- —
- $6.10B
Reported results
- $6.10B
- $1.92B
- 31.41%
- $1.17B
- $5.65
Highlights
- EPS reporting conflict: The supplied expectations data lists reported EPS of $3.62 versus $4.20 consensus, a 13.8% miss; Cheniere’s earnings release and 10-Q instead report diluted GAAP EPS of $5.65, which would be a 34.5% beat. The filing figure is used below.
- Higher year over year, lower sequentially: Q3 revenue was $6.17B, up 39% from $4.44B a year ago and about 9% from Q2’s $5.68B. Net income attributable to Cheniere was $1.17B, up 12% year over year but down from $3.07B in Q2.
- Guidance raised again: Full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to $8.75B–$9.25B from $7.90B–$8.40B; Distributable Cash Flow guidance rose to $6.05B–$6.55B from $5.30B–$5.80B.
- Record LNG output: Cheniere exported 188 cargoes, or 684 TBtu, up 17% year over year. Midscale Train 7 at Corpus Christi reached substantial completion ahead of schedule and within budget.
- Long-term contract additions: QatarEnergy agreed to buy up to 4 mtpa beginning in the early 2030s through 2054, with 1 mtpa conditional on a positive FID for the first SPL expansion phase. Petrobras agreed to buy 0.8 mtpa for 22 years.
- 2027 production outlook: Cheniere expects 56–58 million tonnes of production, up more than 3 million tonnes year over year at the midpoint; about 52 million tonnes are expected to be under long-term contracts.
- Capital returns and investment: Q3 capital allocation included $731M of share repurchases and $740M of growth capital. The company raised its quarterly dividend more than 12% to $0.625 per share.
- Expansion financing and liquidity: Cheniere secured commitments for a $3.25B delayed-draw term loan to fund about half the first SPL expansion phase’s cost, subject to approvals and FID. Total available liquidity was $8.08B at quarter-end.
Analysis
Cheniere’s Q3 was defined by record LNG shipments, a third consecutive increase in 2026 guidance, and progress in contracting and permitting future capacity. Revenue of $6.17B rose 39% year over year and about 9% from Q2. Net income attributable to Cheniere was $1.17B, up 12% from $1.05B a year earlier but down from $3.07B in Q2; diluted EPS was $5.65 versus $4.75 a year ago and $14.65 in Q2. There is a material inconsistency in the supplied EPS data: it identifies $3.62 as reported EPS and a 13.8% miss against $4.20 consensus, while the company’s release and 10-Q report $5.65. On the filed figure, EPS exceeded that consensus. Adjusted EBITDA increased 18% year over year to $1.90B, and Distributable Cash Flow attributable to Cheniere was $1.23B.
The quarter’s sequential earnings decline came alongside higher sales and shipments: management cited stronger LNG volumes and margins, while Q2’s much higher net income provides a tough comparison. For the first nine months, attributable net income fell to $736M from $3.03B, largely reflecting unfavorable derivative fair-value movements; Adjusted EBITDA, which excludes those non-cash changes, rose 23% to $6.04B. The outlook strengthened: guidance rose by $850M at the EBITDA midpoint and $750M at the DCF midpoint, supported by higher market netbacks, earlier Train 7 completion and optimization. Commercial agreements with QatarEnergy and Petrobras add long-term demand support for planned brownfield growth.
Operating results and derivatives
- Quarterly performance: Revenue of $6.17B compared with $4.44B in Q3 2025 and $5.68B in Q2 2026. Operating income was $1.92B, up from $1.82B a year earlier but below Q2’s $4.29B; attributable net income was $1.17B versus $1.05B and $3.07B, respectively.
- Operating contribution: Adjusted EBITDA was $1.90B, 18% above the year-ago $1.61B, as higher delivered volumes and margins supported results. LNG exports reached a quarterly record of 188 cargoes and 684 TBtu, 17% above the prior-year quarter.
- Fair-value volatility: Nine-month attributable net income dropped to $736M from $3.03B, while nine-month Adjusted EBITDA increased 23% to $6.04B. Cheniere attributed the GAAP decline primarily to $3.6B of unfavorable derivative fair-value variances, predominantly tied to long-term IPM agreements. Adjusted Net Income, excluding specified derivative and related items, was $2.39B for the nine months, up from $1.88B.
- EPS discrepancy: The supplied expectations field reports EPS of $3.62 against $4.20 consensus, but the release and 10-Q show diluted EPS of $5.65, against $4.75 in Q3 2025. The company-filed figure does not match the supplied surprise calculation.
2026 guidance and 2027
- Raised 2026 ranges: Adjusted EBITDA guidance is now $8.75B–$9.25B, up from $7.90B–$8.40B; DCF guidance is $6.05B–$6.55B, up from $5.30B–$5.80B. The midpoint increases are $850M and $750M, respectively.
- Drivers and uncertainty: Management cited improving global gas spreads, stronger winter netbacks, earlier-than-expected Train 7 completion, cargo timing and optimization. It maintained 2026 production guidance of 53–54 million tonnes and a $500M-wide EBITDA range, noting that market volatility and cargo timing can still affect results.
- Initial 2027 outlook: Production is forecast at 56–58 million tonnes, including planned maintenance, with approximately 52 million tonnes under long-term contracts and about 5 million tonnes available for marketing. About 1 million tonnes remained unsold as of the call; management estimated that a $1 change in market margins would affect full-year EBITDA by approximately $50M.
Commercial contracts and growth
- New long-term buyers: QatarEnergy signed for up to 4 mtpa from the early 2030s through 2054; 1 mtpa is conditional, among other things, on a positive FID for the first phase of the SPL Expansion Project. Petrobras signed for 0.8 mtpa over 22 years. Management said the agreements support future brownfield expansion.
- Sabine Pass expansion: The first phase is expected to add over 6 mtpa. FERC issued the final environmental impact statement in September; other approvals remain pending. Cheniere has an EPC contract with Bechtel and financing commitments for a $3.25B delayed-draw term loan sized to cover about half of estimated phase-one costs. Management expects FID after remaining approvals, around year-end 2026.
- Corpus Christi projects: Midscale Trains 8 and 9, expected to add about 5 mtpa, were 58.6% complete at quarter-end and are scheduled for substantial completion in the second half of 2028; management said no 2027 volume contribution is forecast. FERC issued a draft EIS for the larger CCL Expansion Project, with management expecting a permit around mid-2027 and necessary approvals around year-end 2027.
- Platform capacity: The company reported about 56 mtpa of operating capacity and approximately 5 mtpa under construction. It expects the first phases of the SPL and CCL expansions, together with debottlenecking, to increase platform capacity by more than 20%.
Capital allocation and liquidity
- Shareholder returns: Cheniere repurchased 2.8 million shares for $731M in Q3 and 7.7 million for $1.8B year to date. The board declared a $0.625 quarterly dividend, over 12% above the prior quarter, or $2.50 annualized.
- Growth and debt: Q3 growth capital was approximately $740M, with about $626M funded from equity cash flows; the company also repaid $54M of consolidated long-term debt. It reported $3.6B deployed under its capital-allocation plan for the first nine months.
- Liquidity and credit: Available liquidity totaled $8.08B at September 30, including $1.66B of cash and $6.02B of available credit commitments. S&P upgraded CCH to A- with a stable outlook in October.
LNG market conditions
- Tight global supply: Management described LNG markets as supply-constrained amid continuing disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. It said TTF and JKM averaged more than $21 and $22/MMBtu, respectively, during Q3, while European storage entered October about 72% full, its lowest level for that date since 2011.
- Demand resilience and exposure: Cheniere pointed to stronger imports across parts of South and Southeast Asia despite elevated prices, while expecting China’s 2026 LNG imports to be about 60 million tonnes. The company said it had secured approximately $18B of fixed margins since its prior call, including nearly $1B for late 2026, and more than $2B of forward sales across the next few years.
