Xcel Energy Inc.
XEL · Nasdaq
Dec 2026
Next quarter
Expected to report Feb 4, 2027 — estimated from last year’s reporting date.
Consensus is $0.94 EPS for Dec 2026 across 4 estimates, ranging $0.87 to $1.00.
XEL Sep 2026
- 9.35%
- $1.39
- $1.52
- —
- —
Reported results
- $1.19B
- $960.00M
- $1.52
Highlights
- Earnings beat: Q3 diluted EPS was $1.52, 9.35% above the $1.39 consensus; ongoing EPS was also $1.52, up from $1.24 a year earlier.
- Earnings growth: Net income rose to $960 million from $524 million and operating income to $1.19 billion from $749 million year over year; Q2 EPS was $0.93.
- Capital plan: Xcel set a $70 billion base investment plan for 2027–2031, including more than 9 GW of renewables, more than 3 GW of natural gas generation, more than 2 GW of storage and 2,400 miles of high-voltage transmission.
- Earnings outlook: The company narrowed 2026 ongoing EPS guidance to $4.10–$4.16 and initiated 2027 guidance of $4.48–$4.62; management expects average EPS growth of 9%+ through 2031.
- Growth drivers: Weather-normalized electric sales increased 2.5% year to date; Xcel targets about 3% growth for full-year 2026 and about 5% in 2027, with SPS a key contributor.
- Quarterly drivers: Higher electric revenues added $0.32 per share, higher AFUDC added $0.11 and other items added $0.16; higher interest expense, equity financing and O&M reduced EPS by $0.13, $0.10 and $0.08, respectively.
- Incremental opportunity: The base plan excludes data-center infrastructure, while Xcel cited more than $10 billion of additional opportunities and is targeting agreements for 1 GW of data-center load by year-end 2026 and 3 GW more by the end of 2027.
- Funding: The five-year plan includes $35.81 billion of cash from operations, $26.19 billion of new debt and $8 billion of equity financing; more than 40% of the equity need is already contracted.
Analysis
Xcel delivered Q3 diluted EPS of $1.52, beating the $1.39 consensus by 9.35%. Ongoing EPS was likewise $1.52, up 23% from $1.24 a year earlier; GAAP EPS rose from $0.88, which included the prior-year Marshall Wildfire charge. Net income increased to $960 million from $524 million, while operating income reached $1.19 billion from $749 million. Results were also above Q2’s $0.93 EPS, though Xcel cautions that seasonal quarterly results are not an appropriate basis for projecting the year. Revenue increased 6.6% year over year to $4.17 billion.
The print was defined by stronger electric infrastructure recovery, favorable weather and investment-related earnings, alongside rising funding costs. Higher electric revenues contributed $0.32 per share and AFUDC $0.11; interest, equity financing and O&M were meaningful offsets. Management paired the quarter with a larger five-year investment program: $70 billion of base capital spending for 2027–2031, with data-center-related projects and other opportunities outside the plan. It narrowed 2026 ongoing EPS guidance to $4.10–$4.16 and initiated 2027 guidance of $4.48–$4.62, while extending its expectation for average EPS growth of at least 9% through 2031.
Quarterly earnings drivers
- Core growth: Ongoing EPS increased to $1.52 from $1.24 year over year, supported by infrastructure investment recovery, equity-method investment earnings and unseasonably warm weather. GAAP EPS was also $1.52, versus $0.88 in the prior-year quarter.
- Bridge: Higher electric revenues added $0.32 per share, reflecting non-fuel riders, regulatory outcomes, sales growth and weather; higher AFUDC added $0.11, and other items added $0.16, primarily from venture investment returns and lower fuel costs.
- Offsets: Higher interest expense reduced EPS by $0.13, common equity financing by $0.10 and higher O&M by $0.08. Interest charges rose $100 million year over year to $432 million, reflecting higher debt levels.
- Operating scale: Operating revenue rose 6.6% to $4.17 billion, operating income increased to $1.19 billion from $749 million, and net income climbed to $960 million from $524 million. The year-ago comparison includes a $287 million Marshall Wildfire charge.
Five-year investment plan
- Base program: The 2027–2031 capital forecast totals $70 billion, with annual spending of $16.3 billion in 2027, $14.7 billion in 2028, $15.2 billion in 2029, $13.1 billion in 2030 and $10.8 billion in 2031.
- Build mix: The plan targets more than 9 GW of renewable generation, more than 3 GW of natural gas generation and more than 2 GW of storage, alongside 2,400 miles of new high-voltage transmission. Functional spending includes $21.4 billion for renewables and $18.6 billion for transmission.
- Growth profile: Management said the plan extends approximately 11% annualized rate-base growth through 2031. The plan focuses on existing customer needs, grid modernization, reliability and cleaner generation; Xcel invested $3.5 billion in Q3 and $10 billion year to date, and expects more than $14 billion for full-year 2026.
Data-center opportunity
- Outside the base plan: Xcel identified more than $10 billion of incremental investment opportunities, including data-center infrastructure, generation RFPs and transmission projects. The $70 billion plan does not depend on signing new data-center customers.
- Contract targets: Management is targeting agreements for another 1 GW of data-center load by the end of 2026 and 3 GW more by the end of 2027. It described negotiations with a large counterparty as active and cited the Upper Midwest and SPS as current areas of strongest interest.
- Customer protections: The company says large-load tariffs and agreements include incremental-cost tests, long-term commitments, minimum bills, credit support and exit protections so existing customers do not subsidize new loads. The Minnesota Google agreement, if approved, is expected to deliver about $1.1 billion in customer benefits.
Outlook and financing
- Guidance: Xcel narrowed 2026 ongoing EPS guidance from $4.04–$4.16 to $4.10–$4.16 and initiated 2027 guidance of $4.48–$4.62. Assumptions include normal weather, about 3% weather-normalized electric sales growth in 2026 and about 5% in 2027.
- Longer-term objectives: Management expects average EPS growth of 9%+ through 2031, including 10%+ on average from 2027 through 2030. The formal long-term objectives remain 6–8%+ annual EPS growth and 4–6% dividend growth; management expects dividend increases toward the low end of that range.
- Capital funding: For 2027–2031, the company expects $35.81 billion of cash from operations, $26.19 billion of new debt and $8 billion of equity to fund the $70 billion base plan. More than 40% of the equity need is contracted, and management cited improving later-period credit metrics, including 18% FFO-to-debt in 2031.
Sales and regulation
- Underlying demand: Weather-normalized electric sales grew 2.5% year to date, with growth in residential and C&I use across the service area. Management expects 2027 growth to accelerate to about 5%, largely from SPS load ramp and oil-and-gas electrification, with additional contributions from data centers.
- Rate recovery: Management said constructive decisions or settlements cover rate cases representing 90% of rate base. In Minnesota, Xcel proposed freezing electric base rates in 2027 and 2028 while using accelerated investment-tax-credit benefits from five battery projects to offset investment-related revenue requirements; a commission decision is requested by January 2027.
- Affordability and execution: Xcel reported residential electric and gas bills over the past five years at 29% and 11% below national averages, respectively. The company is also executing a $4 billion program to improve transmission and distribution resilience and reduce wildfire risk.
