Vistra Corp. (VST) Earnings

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Sep 2026upcoming

Next quarter

Reports Nov 5, 2026.

Consensus is $2.85 EPS for Sep 2026 across 3 estimates, ranging $2.35 to $3.36.

VST Jun 2026

Reported Aug 7, 2026 · before the open

: 16.88%

: $1.54
: $1.80
: —
: $4.40B

Reported results

: $4.40B; from $3.75B
: $553.00M; from $515.00M
: 12.57%; from 13.72%
: $305.00M; from $327.00M
: $0.76; from $0.81

Highlights

Earnings beat: Reported EPS was $1.80 versus consensus of $1.54, a 16.88% surprise.
Underlying growth: Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA rose more than 30% year over year to $1.767 billion from $1.349 billion.
GAAP earnings: Net income was $305 million, or $0.76 per diluted share in the filing, down from $327 million and $0.81 in Q2 2025; results included a $472 million unrealized hedge loss.
Revenue and profit: Reported revenue was $4.40 billion, up from $3.75 billion a year earlier and down from $5.00 billion in Q1; operating income was $553 million versus $515 million a year earlier and $1.50 billion in Q1.
Segment momentum: Texas Adjusted EBITDA increased to $311 million from $142 million, while East rose to $642 million from $418 million; Retail was $773 million versus $756 million and West was $68 million versus $49 million.
Guidance held: Vistra reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and Adjusted FCF before Growth guidance of $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion.
Hedging visibility: The company had hedged approximately 100% of expected 2026 generation, 94% of 2027 generation and 72% of 2028 generation as of August 3.
AI infrastructure expansion: Vistra launched Helix Digital Infrastructure with KKR, KIA and NVIDIA, committing up to $1.0 billion and serving as Helix’s preferred power provider.
Capital allocation: Vistra had repurchased approximately $6.5 billion of stock since November 2021, reducing shares outstanding by roughly 30%; $1.2 billion remained under authorization.

Analysis

Vistra’s second quarter was an underlying operating-strength quarter rather than a GAAP earnings-growth quarter. Reported EPS of $1.80 exceeded the $1.54 consensus estimate by 16.88%, while reported revenue of $4.40 billion rose from $3.75 billion in Q2 2025 but declined from $5.00 billion in Q1 2026. Operating income increased to $553 million from $515 million a year earlier, though it fell sharply from $1.50 billion in the prior quarter. In the filing, GAAP diluted EPS was $0.76, versus $0.81 a year ago and $2.87 in Q1.

The central feature of the print was a more than 30% increase in Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA to $1.767 billion, driven by higher realized energy and capacity prices and a full quarter of contribution from the Lotus plants. Texas and East generation led the improvement, with EBITDA up $169 million and $224 million year over year, respectively. GAAP net income fell to $305 million from $327 million because of a $472 million unrealized hedge loss, including a $488 million increase in mark-to-market losses that largely offset stronger realized economics. Vistra maintained its full-year EBITDA and free-cash-flow targets, while positioning Helix, Cogentrix and additional generation projects as longer-term growth avenues.

Underlying operating performance

Vistra’s operating metrics improved materially despite lower consolidated revenue than in the first quarter. Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA rose $418 million, or more than 30%, year over year to $1.767 billion. Management attributed the increase primarily to higher realized energy and capacity prices and three months of contribution from the natural gas plants acquired from Lotus.

East: Adjusted EBITDA increased to $642 million from $418 million in Q2 2025, a $224 million improvement.
Texas: Adjusted EBITDA increased to $311 million from $142 million, reflecting a $169 million year-over-year gain.
Retail: Adjusted EBITDA was $773 million, up from $756 million despite the comparison with a strong prior-year quarter.
West: Adjusted EBITDA rose to $68 million from $49 million.
Reliability: During extreme heat in Texas and PJM, fleet commercial availability was at least 97%, according to management.

Hedge losses and GAAP results

The quarter illustrates the difference between Vistra’s realized operating economics and mark-to-market accounting. GAAP net income declined $22 million year over year to $305 million even as operating income rose $38 million, because unrealized derivative losses increased by $488 million. The company expects the $472 million unrealized hedge loss recognized in the quarter to settle in future years.

Income statement: Operating revenues in the filing were $4.017 billion, compared with $4.250 billion in Q2 2025; operating income was $553 million versus $515 million.
Net income: GAAP net income attributable to Vistra was $305 million, down from $327 million a year earlier; $258 million was attributable to common stock after $47 million of preferred dividends.
Cash generation: Six-month cash from operating activities was $2.222 billion, versus $1.171 billion in the prior-year period, while capital expenditures were $1.572 billion.

Guidance and growth platform

Vistra left its 2026 outlook unchanged, supported by its substantial hedge book and stronger first-half operating results. The outlook excludes potential contributions from the pending Cogentrix acquisition and signed Meta power purchase agreements, which management expects to begin contributing to Adjusted EBITDA in 2027.

2026 outlook: Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance remains $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion, with Adjusted FCF before Growth at $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion.
Forward hedges: Expected generation is hedged approximately 100% for 2026, 94% for 2027 and 72% for 2028; management continues to cite a $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion 2027 EBITDA midpoint opportunity range.
Cogentrix: FERC approved the acquisition of 10 natural gas facilities totaling approximately 5,500 MW; closing is expected in late 2026 and the transaction remains excluded from guidance.
Helix: Vistra committed up to $1.0 billion to the new AI infrastructure platform with KKR, KIA and NVIDIA, including an initial $500 million commitment and a potential additional $500 million.
Development: The company is advancing two Permian Basin gas units and solar projects including Oak Hill 2 and Pulaski.

Balance sheet and capital allocation

Vistra used the period to strengthen financing flexibility while continuing shareholder returns. Investment-grade ratings enabled the release of collateral and guarantees, and the company expanded its revolving credit capacity. The main near-term capital item is the remaining payment on the Vistra Vision minority-interest repurchase obligation.

Liquidity: Total available liquidity was approximately $6.295 billion at June 30, including $435 million of cash, $4.408 billion under the corporate revolver and $1.452 billion under the commodity-linked facility.
Debt: Long-term debt including current maturities was $19.595 billion, up from $17.043 billion at December 31, 2025, following debt issuance to refinance obligations and support growth.
Repurchases: The company repurchased $709 million of stock during the first six months and had approximately $1.2 billion remaining under its authorization, which it expects to complete by year-end 2027.
Near-term obligation: The remaining principal payment under the forward repurchase obligation is approximately $613 million at present value and is due December 31, 2026.

Moss Landing remediation

The Moss Landing incident remains a material operational and cash-cost overhang within the Asset Closure activities. Vistra increased its estimated remediation cost during the quarter as the timeline extended and cost assumptions rose.

Remediation estimate: Total Moss Landing remediation costs are now estimated at approximately $175 million, including a $65 million increase recorded in Q2.
Costs incurred: Approximately $90 million had been incurred through June 30, leaving $85 million recorded in current liabilities.
Restart uncertainty: The company is working toward returning the 350 MW Moss Landing battery facility to service in 2026, but said the timing remains uncertain.

Vistra Corp.

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