Nucor Corporation
NUE · NYSE
Next quarter
Expected to report Jan 25, 2027 — estimated from last year’s reporting date.
Consensus is $5.62 EPS for Dec 2026 across 5 estimates, ranging $3.41 to $6.84.
NUE Sep 2026
- 1.58%
- +5.22%
- $5.71
- $5.80
- —
- —
Highlights
- Earnings beat: Diluted EPS of $5.80 exceeded the $5.71 consensus by 1.58% and was about 3.5% above the midpoint of company guidance; EBITDA reached $2.28 billion, Nucor’s strongest quarter in more than three years.
- Revenue and profit growth: Net sales rose 32% year over year to $11.25 billion and 8% sequentially; net earnings attributable to Nucor stockholders were $1.32 billion, up from $607 million a year ago and $1.16 billion in Q2.
- Record mill shipments and pricing: Steel mills shipped 7.23 million tons, a third consecutive quarterly record; the segment earned $1.79 billion before tax, as higher selling prices and volumes outweighed higher costs.
- Steel products recovery: Segment pre-tax earnings rose to $465 million from $353 million in Q2, with external shipments up 6% and average selling prices up 7%; EBITDA margin expanded about 200 basis points sequentially.
- Strong cash generation and returns: Year-to-date free cash flow was $2.66 billion, including $1.6 billion in Q3; Nucor returned $629 million to shareholders in the quarter and nearly $1.4 billion through nine months.
- Fourth-quarter outlook: Management expects consolidated earnings in line with or modestly above Q3, with stable steel mills and steel products earnings and slightly lower raw materials earnings.
- Growth projects advance: West Virginia produced its first heat in September and is preparing for a 2027 ramp; Berkeley’s new galvanizing line started production, while towers and structures backlog more than doubled since year-end.
- Demand and shipment outlook: Nucor expects 2026 steel mill shipment growth near the high end of its 5%–10% range; management cited broad end-market strength, while noting finished steel imports have risen in recent months.
Analysis
Nucor reported a strong Q3, with diluted EPS of $5.80 beating the $5.71 consensus by 1.58% and coming about 3.5% above the midpoint of its own guidance. Net sales of $11.25 billion increased 32% year over year and 8% sequentially. Net earnings attributable to Nucor stockholders reached $1.32 billion, compared with $607 million in Q3 2025 and $1.16 billion in Q2 2026; EBITDA was $2.28 billion, the company’s best in more than three years. Sequentially, EPS increased from $5.04, although Q2 included a $0.20-per-share non-cash Helion valuation benefit; Q2 adjusted EPS was $4.84.
The print was defined by record steel mill shipments and stronger pricing, improving steel products margins, and substantial cash generation. Steel mills shipped 7.23 million tons, while steel products benefited from higher volumes and pricing. Nucor generated $1.6 billion of Q3 free cash flow and returned $629 million to shareholders. Management expects Q4 earnings to be in line with or modestly higher than Q3, with seasonal volume reductions offset by pricing and lower intersegment eliminations. The company also emphasized a supportive demand outlook, advancing growth projects and lower capital spending as major projects near completion, supporting its expectation of stronger earnings prospects in 2027.
Steel earnings and pricing
- Steel mills: Pre-tax earnings increased to $1.79 billion from $1.56 billion in Q2. Shipments rose 2% to 7.23 million tons, a third consecutive quarterly record, and external average selling price increased 8% sequentially to $1,233 per ton.
- Prior-quarter comparison: Q2 mill costs benefited from $130 million of cash refunds for prior-period raw material procurement costs, which did not recur. Q3 also faced higher conversion costs, including consumables, freight and energy, as well as planned outages and lower fixed-cost absorption.
- Steel products: Pre-tax earnings increased $112 million sequentially to $465 million. External shipments rose 6% and average selling price increased 7% to $2,576 per ton; pricing catch-up against higher steel input costs lifted segment EBITDA margin about 200 basis points.
- Raw materials: Pre-tax earnings declined to $105 million from $146 million as pricing and shipments weakened. External raw-material shipments fell 23% sequentially to 508,000 tons.
Demand and market outlook
Management described demand as broad-based across infrastructure, manufacturing reshoring, data centers, energy, utilities and oil and gas. Nucor expects 2026 steel mill shipment growth to finish nearer the high end of its 5%–10% range. Data centers account for about 15% of Nucor’s backlog, according to the CEO, and the company says its products can supply roughly 95% of the steel needed in and around a data center. Management also cited border-wall demand, estimating about 1,400 miles of new wall at roughly 1,500 tons of steel per mile, with shipments expected to continue into 2028. Finished steel imports were down more than 13% year over year and 24% versus 2024, but have risen in recent months, including a surge from South Korea.
Growth projects and capacity
- West Virginia sheet mill: The mill produced its first heat in September and began shipping pickle-line coils to downstream divisions in October. Nucor expects first coils through the hot mill, cold mill and construction-grade galvanizing line by December, with production ramping in early 2027 and a 50% utilization target by year-end 2027. Startup costs are expected to remain elevated in 2027, at levels similar to or above 2026.
- Berkeley galvanizing: The new automotive-grade line began production in October. Nucor expects 50% utilization in Q2 2027 and full run rate by year-end 2027; at full production, it adds 500,000 tons of annual galvanizing capacity.
- Towers and structures: The order backlog more than doubled since the start of 2026 and extends into early 2028. Nucor announced $165 million of investments to expand Indiana and Alabama facility capacity by about 50%, raising its long-term annual EBITDA contribution target for the business to about $200 million from $150 million.
Cash flow and shareholder returns
- Free cash flow: Q3 free cash flow was $1.6 billion, bringing the nine-month total to $2.66 billion, calculated as $4.52 billion of operating cash flow less $1.86 billion of capital expenditures. Management said operating cash flow rose from $900 million in Q1 to more than $2.2 billion in Q3.
- Capital spending: Nucor expects full-year 2026 capital expenditures to finish at or slightly below its original $2.5 billion estimate, with a further decline expected in 2027 as major projects near completion.
- Capital returned: The company returned $629 million through dividends and repurchases in Q3, including repurchases of about 2.03 million shares at an average $247.04. Nine-month returns were nearly $1.4 billion, or 42% of net earnings; management reiterated its goal of returning at least 40% annually.
- Financial position: Nucor ended the quarter with $3.64 billion in cash and short-term investments, a $2.25 billion undrawn revolving facility and total debt equal to 23% of capital. Its A-/A-/A3 ratings remain the highest among North American steel producers, according to the company.
Fourth-quarter outlook
Nucor expects Q4 consolidated earnings to be in line with or modestly higher than Q3. Steel mills earnings are expected to be stable: higher realized pricing should offset seasonally lower volumes, higher costs and planned outages. Steel products earnings are also expected to be stable as higher pricing offsets lower seasonal volumes. Raw materials earnings are expected to be slightly lower, primarily because of lower realized DRI pricing, while lower intersegment profit eliminations should reduce corporate and elimination expense. Management noted five or six fewer shipping days than Q3, additional holiday downtime and potential winter weather; it cited a historical Q3-to-Q4 shipment decline of about 7% as a useful planning reference.
