ING Group, N.V.
ING · NYSE
Dec 2026
Next quarter
Expected to report Jan 28, 2027 — estimated from last year’s reporting date.
Consensus is $0.65 EPS for Dec 2026 across 1 estimates, ranging $0.65 to $0.65.
ING Sep 2026
- 5.06%
- $0.79
- $0.75
- —
- —
Highlights
- EPS: Reported EPS of €0.75 missed the €0.79 consensus by 5.1%; management said EPS was up 17% year on year.
- Income growth: Total income rose 6% year on year, led by commercial NII growth of 13% and fee income growth of 9%.
- Returns: Third-quarter return on tangible equity was 16%; the four-quarter rolling measure improved 2 percentage points year on year.
- Capital return: ING announced an additional distribution of up to €1.9 billion: a €1.65 billion buyback and €250 million cash payment.
- Capital position: CET1 stood at 13.3%, versus an 11.10% requirement; the distribution’s 56-basis-point impact was already reflected in the ratio.
- Customer growth: ING added 259,000 mobile primary customers in the quarter and more than 1.1 million over 12 months; loans and deposits each grew at a 6% annualized rate.
- Outlook: ING expects 2026 fee income of €5 billion, a year ahead of plan, and commercial NII of €16.8 billion–€17 billion, with results now expected toward the upper end.
- Wholesale restructuring: A planned €175 million fourth-quarter provision is expected to support €75 million of annual cost savings from 2028, with around 400 roles affected.
Analysis
ING delivered solid operating growth but missed the supplied EPS consensus: third-quarter EPS was €0.75 against €0.79 expected, a 5.1% shortfall. Total income increased 6% year on year as commercial NII rose 13% and fee income advanced 9%. Management said EPS was up 17% year on year and reported 16% quarterly return on tangible equity, with the four-quarter rolling measure 2 percentage points higher than a year earlier. The supplied materials do not give comparable EPS or total-income figures for the year-ago quarter or the immediately preceding quarter; sequentially, commercial NII rose €161 million, fee income was broadly stable, and other income was affected by interest-rate volatility and negative hedge ineffectiveness.
Income and customer activity
- Net interest income: Commercial NII increased €161 million quarter on quarter and 13% year on year. Lending NII rose €28 million sequentially on higher volumes; liability NII gained €135 million as deposit volumes grew and the liability margin improved 6 basis points.
- Fees and balances: Fee income increased 9% year on year, including growth of 10% in retail banking and 9% in wholesale banking. Net core lending rose €11 billion and net core deposits €12.1 billion in the quarter.
- Customer relationships: ING added 259,000 mobile primary customers in the quarter, bringing the 12-month increase to more than 1.1 million. Retail customers’ average fees per private individual customer rose 14%; assets under management had €20 billion of net inflows year on year.
Profitability and outlook
- Returns and operating leverage: Third-quarter ROTE was 16%, while the four-quarter rolling measure improved 2 percentage points year on year. Income growth of 6.6% over the last 12 months outpaced cost growth of around 2%, producing operating jaws above 4 percentage points.
- 2026 income outlook: ING expects commercial NII of €16.8 billion–€17 billion, now leaning toward the upper end, with a full-year liability margin of around 110 basis points. The lending margin was 123 basis points and is expected to remain broadly stable for the rest of the year.
- Fee target pulled forward: Full-year fee income is expected to reach €5 billion, €400 million above the prior year and one year ahead of the original target. Total income is expected to exceed the original 2027 target by at least €1 billion.
Capital and distributions
- Additional return: ING announced up to €1.9 billion for shareholders, comprising a buyback of up to €1.65 billion beginning 29 October and a €250 million cash payment scheduled for 14 January 2027.
- CET1 and funding: CET1 was 13.3%, against an 11.10% requirement. The 56-basis-point implied impact of the distribution was already incorporated because it is funded from reserves outside CET1.
- Capital efficiency: Risk-weighted assets fell €4.3 billion in the quarter, including €3 billion of relief from securitisation transactions. ING reported 16 basis points of CET1 benefit from its SRT programme year to date and generated around 80 basis points of CET1 in the quarter.
Costs and restructuring
- Wholesale Banking changes: ING plans to simplify the business and organise more around client relationships. The move is expected to affect around 400 roles and incur a €175 million provision in the fourth quarter, with annual savings of around €75 million from 2028.
- Underlying expenses: Expenses excluding regulatory costs and incidental items rose 3.6% year on year, reflecting investment in growth markets and wholesale transaction-banking capabilities; they were broadly stable quarter on quarter. Year-to-date cost growth was 3%, in line with the full-year outlook.
- Other restructuring: Third-quarter restructuring costs were €63 million and are expected to generate €40 million in annual savings once implemented. Management said the 2027 outlook was unchanged.
Credit costs and other income
- Risk costs: Total risk costs were €403 million, including €111 million from an IFRS model update. Net additions to Stage 3 provisions were €239 million, mainly related to collective consumer-lending provisions; excluding the model update and SRT-related charges, risk costs were below the through-the-cycle average of 20 basis points.
- Other income: Interest-rate volatility weakened hedge effectiveness, weighing on other income. Management characterised this as accounting-driven and expected the effect to reverse over time. Full-year other income guidance remained €2.5 billion–€2.7 billion.
