Intercontinental Exchange Inc.
ICE · NYSE
Next quarter
Expected to report Feb 4, 2027 — estimated from last year’s reporting date.
Consensus is $1.94 EPS for Dec 2026 across 6 estimates, ranging $1.89 to $2.00.
ICE Sep 2026
- 2.54%
- $1.97
- $2.02
- —
- $3.63B
Reported results
- $3.63B
- $1.41B
- 38.84%
- $940.00M
- $1.67
Highlights
- EPS beat — Adjusted diluted EPS was $2.02, 2.5% above the $1.97 consensus estimate and up 18% year over year; GAAP diluted EPS was $1.67, also up 18%.
- Record third-quarter activity — Net revenues after transaction-based expenses rose 15% to $2.765 billion, while total revenues were $3.630 billion, up 21% from $3.007 billion a year ago.
- Trading drove the acceleration — Net transaction revenues increased 23% to $1.400 billion, versus 7% growth in recurring revenues to a record $1.365 billion; futures and options ADV was up 31% and open interest rose 13%.
- Exchanges led growth — Segment net revenues climbed 22% to $1.542 billion, with transaction revenues up 28%; operating margin widened to 75% from 72%.
- Data businesses grew steadily — Fixed Income and Data Services revenue rose 9% to a record $674 million, including recurring revenue up 9% to $538 million; ICE raised its 2026 recurring-growth outlook to about 8%.
- Mortgage remained subdued — Mortgage Technology revenue grew 4% to $549 million, but GAAP operating income fell to $13 million from $22 million; adjusted operating income was $219 million versus $224 million.
- Cash generation funded returns and investment — Year-to-date operating cash flow was $4.5 billion and adjusted free cash flow $3.7 billion, up 17%; ICE returned $2.5 billion to stockholders, including $1.6 billion of repurchases.
- MarketAxess timing advanced — After receiving early U.S. antitrust clearance, ICE said the $6.0 billion acquisition is now expected to close in Q1 2027, ahead of its prior first-half timeline.
Analysis
ICE delivered a record third quarter, with adjusted diluted EPS of $2.02 beating the $1.97 consensus by 2.5% and rising 18% year over year. Total revenue was $3.630 billion, up 21% from $3.007 billion a year ago and about 0.6% from Q2’s $3.61 billion; net revenue after transaction-based expenses increased 15% to $2.765 billion. GAAP operating income rose 20% year over year to $1.410 billion, while GAAP diluted EPS of $1.67 was up 18% year over year but slightly below Q2’s $1.69. Net income attributable to ICE was $940 million, versus $816 million a year ago and $958 million in Q2.
The print was defined by the operating leverage from stronger trading activity, continued growth in recurring data revenue, and contrasting segment performance. Net transaction revenue advanced 23%, compared with 7% growth in recurring revenue; adjusted operating income grew 19% and adjusted margin reached 61%, up two points year over year. Exchanges benefited from broad-based volumes, while Fixed Income and Data Services delivered record recurring revenue. Mortgage Technology grew more slowly and its GAAP margin remained thin. ICE generated $3.7 billion of adjusted free cash flow through nine months and returned $2.5 billion to stockholders. Management raised full-year recurring-revenue growth expectations for Exchanges and Fixed Income and Data Services, while flagging a seasonal, rate-pressured decline in mortgage transaction revenue in Q4.
Trading and exchanges
- Broad activity surge — Futures and options ADV reached 10.48 million contracts, up 31% year over year and a third-quarter record; quarter-end open interest rose 13% to 115.5 million contracts. Management cited renewed geopolitical risk and shifting rate expectations as catalysts.
- Energy and financials — Exchanges net revenue increased 22% to $1.542 billion. Energy revenue rose 25% to $603 million, Ags and Metals climbed 62% to $83 million, and Financials grew 37% to $190 million. Within energy, TTF volume rose 39% and Brent volume 38%; interest-rate volume was up 49%.
- NYSE and recurring revenue — Cash equities and equity options net revenue increased 25% to $132 million, while exchange recurring revenue reached a record $422 million, up 8%. Data and connectivity services grew 10% to $292 million. ICE raised its 2026 Exchange recurring-revenue growth expectation to about 9%, the top end of its prior range.
- Profitability — Exchange operating income rose 27% to $1.152 billion and operating margin expanded to 75% from 72%; adjusted operating margin was 76%, up three points.
Fixed income and data
- Record recurring base — Fixed Income and Data Services revenue increased 9% to a record $674 million, with recurring revenue also up 9% to a record $538 million. Fixed Income Data and Analytics grew 8% to $336 million and Data and Network Technology rose 10% to $202 million.
- Clearing and margins — CDS clearing revenue climbed 12% to $102 million, its strongest third quarter, with a record $2.7 trillion cleared in one day during the September index roll. Segment GAAP operating income was $245 million, essentially flat with $244 million a year ago; adjusted operating income rose to $309 million from $282 million, and adjusted margin improved to 46% from 45%.
- Outlook and demand — ICE lifted its 2026 recurring-revenue growth outlook to about 8%, citing stronger consumption, new subscriptions and index assets. Management said customers are consolidating vendors and highlighted record ETF assets benchmarked to ICE indices of $935 billion, up 24%.
Mortgage technology
- Modest growth, weak GAAP leverage — Revenue advanced 4% to $549 million. Servicing Software and Data and Analytics each grew 6%, while recurring and transaction revenue each increased 4%. GAAP operating income declined to $13 million from $22 million, reflecting $186 million of acquisition-related amortization and $20 million of transaction and integration costs in the segment; adjusted operating income was $219 million versus $224 million.
- Q4 and integration — ICE expects recurring revenue to grow modestly sequentially, but transaction revenue to fall from both Q3 and the year-ago quarter amid typical seasonality and elevated mortgage rates. Management expects to exit 2026 with about $270 million of annualized Black Knight expense synergies, above the original five-year target of $200 million.
Margins and guidance
Consolidated GAAP operating income increased 20% year over year to $1.410 billion on $2.765 billion of net revenue, lifting operating margin to 51% from 49%. Adjusted operating income grew 19% to $1.697 billion and adjusted margin rose to 61% from 59%. Adjusted operating expenses were $1.068 billion, at the midpoint of guidance; management attributed the increase to performance-linked compensation, technology and product investment, and higher depreciation, with revenue growth more than offsetting the added costs. For Q4, ICE forecast adjusted operating expenses of $1.082 billion to $1.092 billion, adjusted non-operating expense of $175 million to $185 million, and a tax rate toward the high end of its 24%–26% range. Full-year capital expenditures are expected to be about $1.050 billion, partly reflecting a planned Atlanta campus purchase.
Capital and MarketAxess
- Cash generation and shareholder returns — Through September, operating cash flow was $4.486 billion and adjusted free cash flow was $3.728 billion, up 17% year over year. Q3 adjusted free cash flow was $1.1 billion. ICE repurchased $1.6 billion of stock and paid $884 million in dividends year to date, returning $2.5 billion in total.
- Acquisition progress and financing — The DOJ and FTC granted early termination of the HSR waiting period on October 21, and ICE now expects its approximately $6.0 billion all-cash MarketAxess acquisition to close in Q1 2027, subject to remaining approvals and closing conditions. ICE issued $3.75 billion of senior notes and arranged a $2.0 billion delayed-draw term loan to help fund the deal.
- Leverage and balance sheet — Total debt was $23.3 billion and unrestricted cash was $936 million at September 30. Management reported leverage of 2.65x excluding the pre-funded MarketAxess notes, down from 2.8x in June and just over 2.9x a year earlier, and said capital returns would continue alongside deleveraging after the deal closes.
