GSK plc American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares)
GSK · NYSE
Next quarter
Expected to report Feb 3, 2027 — estimated from last year’s reporting date.
Consensus is $0.76 EPS for Dec 2026 across 5 estimates, ranging $0.71 to $0.87.
GSK Sep 2026
- 5.00%
- $1.40
- $1.47
- —
- —
Highlights
- EPS beat GSK reported Q3 EPS of $1.47, 5% above the $1.40 consensus.
- Specialty growth Specialty medicines grew 15%, led by oncology and respiratory treatments, according to the release summary.
- Shingrix inventory U.S. pharmacy stock rose to 2.3 million doses from 1.7 million a year earlier; the build added about 2 percentage points to global growth in the quarter.
- Shingrix demand The U.S. adult vaccines market was down about 18% year over year, while Shingrix was down about 14%; U.S. immunization rates rose 3 percentage points to 46%.
- China Shingrix Monthly injections reached about 300,000, up 60% year over year, as inventory fell to 1.4 million doses in August from 4.3 million the prior summer.
- Hibsago launch The hepatitis B treatment is approved in the U.S. and Japan; U.S. availability was expected within about 10 days of the call, and China regulatory discussions were ongoing.
- Guidance unchanged Management kept full-year guidance, citing expected moderation in sales growth and Q4 launch spending despite a Q3 beat and favorable SG&A phasing.
- Costs and investment Q3 R&D grew 22%; management expects Nuvalent-related interest expense above £300 million next year and an overall financial charge of roughly £900 million to £1 billion.
Analysis
GSK’s Q3 EPS of $1.47 topped the $1.40 consensus by 5%. The supplied material does not give total revenue, prior-quarter EPS or comparable aggregate year-ago growth, so the clearest comparisons are in operating indicators. Specialty medicines grew 15%, with oncology and respiratory cited as drivers. Shingrix remained more resilient than its market: U.S. sales were down about 14% against an 18% decline in adult vaccines overall, while immunization rates reached 46%, up 3 percentage points. China demand also improved, with monthly injections up 60% year over year.
The print was shaped by timing as much as underlying demand. U.S. pharmacy Shingrix inventory rose to 2.3 million doses from 1.7 million a year earlier, contributing about 2 percentage points to global growth; management expects sales growth to moderate in Q4 and kept full-year guidance unchanged. The call also focused on Hibsago’s imminent U.S. launch and Japan reimbursement, alongside investment in R&D and new launches. Sequentially, U.S. commercial coverage parity for Nucala rose from 18% in Q2 to 43% in Q3. Management said R&D growth was unusually high at 22% in Q3, but expects continued R&D investment to be supported by cost efficiencies and a shift toward specialty medicines.
Quarter and guidance
Management said Q3 sales exceeded its original expectations, but some of the strength reflected timing: U.S. Shingrix inventory, meningitis ordering patterns and Ventolin contributed to sales, while SG&A phasing and royalties supported operating profit. Higher R&D spending partly offset those benefits, with R&D growth reaching 22% in the quarter. GSK held full-year guidance and expects sales growth to moderate slightly in Q4, citing HIV pricing, the absence of last year’s Q4 Shingrix shipment to China, and the comparison with recent French and Japanese launches. Q4 launch support for Hepzato, Hibsago and Nuvalent will add costs; a roughly £200 million SG&A charge from last year will not recur.
Shingrix demand and inventory
- United States: Immunization rates were 46%, up 3 percentage points and within management’s 2–4-point annual range. Shingrix declined about 14% against an 18% decline for the broader adult vaccine market. Wholesaler inventory was steady at 0.4, while pharmacy stock reached 2.3 million doses versus 1.7 million a year earlier, likely reflecting a later flu season. The inventory build added around 2 percentage points to global growth.
- China: Monthly injections were about 300,000, up 60% year over year. Inventory fell from roughly 4.3 million doses the prior summer to 1.4 million in August, or about 1.5 months of demand. GSK expects to match shipments to demand and ideally reorder in 2027.
- Other markets: Europe grew through country expansion, broader coverage and improving private demand, though Germany and France were softer over the summer. International growth also reflects efforts to expand access in markets including Brazil, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
- Potential extensions: Two registry-based studies in Finland and Denmark are expected to enroll about 200,000 adults; initial results are expected in 2029, with CVD data due at the end of 2027. A separate MACE study across 28 countries was expected to start by year-end, subject to regulatory discussions.
Hibsago launch
Hibsago, GSK’s hepatitis B treatment, was approved in the U.S. and Japan, with U.S. availability expected within roughly 10 days of the call. In Japan, reimbursement included a 50% usefulness premium and an additional 10% premium for SENKU designation. China was the next regulatory milestone; management described discussions as active and plans to launch in the private market once available, then seek NRDL inclusion, which it hopes to achieve by the end of next year. The U.S. addressable population was estimated at 1.7 million, with 400,000 diagnosed and 120,000 treated; Japan was estimated at 900,000, with 600,000 diagnosed and 120,000 treated. Management said early blood monitoring is important because liver-enzyme elevations and thrombocytopenia can occur soon after treatment begins, and physicians may reassess monitoring after the first 12 weeks.
Specialty and HIV trends
- Specialty portfolio: Specialty medicines grew 15%, with oncology and respiratory treatments driving growth. Management also pointed to specialty’s lower selling costs relative to primary-care products as a source of structural margin support.
- Nucala and respiratory: U.S. Nucala volume rose 39% while price fell 15%. Management cited competitive pressure from TSLP therapies, partly offset by COPD demand. Commercial coverage parity for Xolair rose from 18% in Q2 to 43% in Q3; total covered lives reached 71%, including some step-through restrictions.
- ViiV and Dovato: ViiV continued to grow at a double-digit rate. Dolutegravir patent expiry in Brazil had a marginal impact, while management said it did not expect other significant market expiries next year; U.S. composition-of-matter protection runs to 2028.
Pipeline and funding
- Cabotegravir studies: Management said the PrEP study EXTEND and treatment study CUATRO answer different questions, while confirming they use the same formulation. Analysis of EXTEND was ongoing, with data expected to be shared with regulators before year-end; GSK declined to give further detail ahead of those discussions.
- Research investment: GSK expects R&D to continue growing faster than sales, while using its Accelerate Growth program to reduce support-services and manufacturing costs and redirect resources toward R&D. Management said six additional Phase III studies are expected to start next year.
- Financing costs: Accelerate Growth charges are now expected to total about £1 billion this year, versus the prior £700 million estimate. Nuvalent-related interest expense is expected to exceed £300 million next year; the overall financial charge is expected to be around £900 million to £1 billion, with rates also a headwind.
