GE Vernova Inc.
GEV · NYSE
Next quarter
Expected to report Jan 27, 2027 — estimated from last year’s reporting date.
Consensus is $6.80 EPS for Dec 2026 across 7 estimates, ranging $5.10 to $8.51.
GEV Sep 2026
- 19.35%
- $4.03
- $4.81
- —
- $12.64B
Reported results
- $12.64B
- 24.58%
- $1.39B
- 11.03%
- $1.29B
- $4.81
Highlights
- Earnings beat: Q3 diluted EPS was $4.81, 19.35% above the $4.03 consensus and up from $1.64 a year ago and $2.47 in Q2.
- Revenue and margins: Revenue rose 27% year over year to $12.64B, or 18% organically; adjusted EBITDA increased to $1.94B from $811M, with adjusted EBITDA margin up 730 basis points to 15.4%.
- Orders and backlog: Orders reached $29.3B, up 96% organically, lifting backlog $20B sequentially to $197B; management expects backlog to exceed $200B in Q4.
- Power inflection: Power revenue grew 25% to $6.07B and segment EBITDA margin reached 21.4%, up 800 basis points; gas equipment backlog rose from 53 GW to 64 GW.
- Higher outlook: 2026 revenue guidance increased to $46.5B–$47.5B, adjusted EBITDA margin to 13.5%–14.5%, and free cash flow to $16B–$17B.
- Trench acquisition: GE Vernova agreed to acquire Trench Group for approximately $9B, funded equally with cash and debt; closing is expected in late 2027, with $50M–$100M of annual cost synergies targeted by 2030.
- Cash and returns: Q3 free cash flow was $5.41B, including a $5.3B working-capital benefit; cash ended at $16.8B, and the Board doubled the repurchase authorization to $20B.
- Wind turns profitable: Wind generated $72M of segment EBITDA and a 2.6% margin, versus a $61M loss a year ago, though management still expects $400M–$500M of full-year segment EBITDA losses.
Analysis
GE Vernova delivered a broad operating beat: Q3 revenue of $12.64B rose 27% year over year and nearly 14% sequentially, while diluted EPS of $4.81 exceeded the $4.03 consensus by 19.35%. EPS compared with $1.64 in Q3 2025 and $2.47 in Q2 2026. Net income was $1.29B versus $453M a year ago, and operating income climbed to $1.39B from $366M. Adjusted EBITDA grew to $1.94B from $811M, with margin expanding to 15.4% from 8.1%, reflecting higher pricing, volume and productivity.
The defining feature was demand outstripping delivery capacity: orders rose 96% organically to $29.3B and backlog increased $20B sequentially to $197B, with management expecting more than $200B in Q4. Power drove the margin step-up, while Electrification combined organic growth with contribution from Prolec. The company raised 2026 revenue, margin and free-cash-flow guidance; the latter rose to $16B–$17B from $11.5B–$12.5B. Q3 free cash flow of $5.41B included a $5.3B working-capital benefit, mainly customer down payments, so cash conversion was not solely earnings-led. Alongside expanding capacity, GE Vernova announced a $9B Trench acquisition to add high-voltage grid equipment capabilities and doubled its buyback authorization to $20B.
Demand and gas backlog
Orders increased 96% organically to $29.3B, producing a book-to-bill ratio above 2x. Backlog reached $197B, up $20B sequentially and $61.5B year over year; equipment backlog was $104B and services backlog $93B. Management expects total backlog to exceed $200B in Q4, with improving margins.
- Gas commitments: Gas equipment backlog increased from 53 GW to 64 GW. The company signed 11 GW of new equipment contracts and slot reservations, converted 13 GW of existing reservations to orders, and shipped 5 GW; total gas equipment backlog and reservations rose from 116 GW to 122 GW.
- Year-end target: GE Vernova expects at least 130 GW of gas equipment under contract by year-end, versus 83 GW at the start of 2026. It sold some turbine slots for 2032 delivery, and management expects contracted gigawatts to continue growing in 2027.
- Pricing and services: Third-quarter gas orders were priced more than 20% above Q4 2025 orders; full-year 2026 gas orders pricing per kW is expected to be about 50% higher than 2025. Services orders grew 10% in the quarter and 17% year to date.
Margin expansion
Adjusted EBITDA increased 140% year over year to $1.94B, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 730 basis points to 15.4% (690 basis points organically). The operating leverage was led by Power and Electrification, with higher price, more profitable volume and productivity more than offsetting inflation. The Q3 result also came in a seasonally lighter Power services quarter.
- Power: Revenue rose 25% to $6.07B and segment EBITDA increased to $1.30B from $651M; margin expanded 800 basis points to 21.4%. Favorable pricing and higher gas turbine volume were the main drivers. Management described Q3 as the first quarter of shipments from its 5-GW quarterly gas equipment run rate at better prices.
- Electrification: Revenue increased 51% to $3.86B, including Prolec, and 16% organically. Segment EBITDA rose to $739M from $387M; margin expanded 400 basis points to 19.1%, supported by volume, productivity and favorable pricing.
- Underlying growth: Organic revenue rose 18% to $11.68B. Organic equipment revenue grew 26%, while organic services revenue increased 6%, showing that equipment shipments accounted for most of the quarter’s organic growth.
2026 outlook
Following strong year-to-date performance, GE Vernova raised its full-year targets across revenue, profitability and cash generation. The revised forecast assumes continued growth and margin progress into Q4; management expects Q4 revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, adjusted EBITDA margin expansion and positive free cash flow.
- Company guidance: Revenue is now expected at $46.5B–$47.5B, versus $45.5B–$46.5B previously; adjusted EBITDA margin at 13.5%–14.5%, versus 12%–14%; and free cash flow at $16B–$17B, versus $11.5B–$12.5B.
- Power: Organic revenue growth guidance increased to 19%–21% from 18%–20%, and segment EBITDA margin guidance to 19%–21% from 17%–19%.
- Electrification and Wind: Electrification revenue remains guided to $14.5B–$15.0B, with margin now trending toward the higher end of its 18%–20% range. Wind organic revenue is expected to decline mid-single digits rather than low-double digits, but segment EBITDA losses are now forecast at $400M–$500M versus about $400M previously.
Trench acquisition
The announced approximately $9B acquisition of Trench Group extends GE Vernova’s push into high-voltage grid equipment and vertical integration. Trench makes bushings, instrument transformers and coils, has more than 3,000 employees across 11 factories, and is already a supplier to GE Vernova. Management expects the deal to close in late 2027, subject to regulatory approval, and plans to fund it equally with cash and debt while maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet.
- Business profile: Trench is estimated to generate $1.4B of 2026 revenue, with revenue projected to approach $2B in 2028. It has approximately $5B of backlog and framework agreements, including about 80 agreements, roughly half representing volume commitments.
- Economics: Management expects mid-teens annual revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 and approximately 36% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2028. The purchase price is 13 times estimated 2028 EBITDA before synergies; the company expects the deal to be immediately accretive after closing.
- Strategic fit: Trench adds components used in GE Vernova’s transformers, substations and HVDC systems, improving supply certainty and integration as grid-equipment demand grows. The company targets $50M–$100M of annualized cost synergies by 2030 and sees additional revenue synergy potential.
Cash and capital returns
Q3 free cash flow was $5.41B, up from $732M a year earlier, and operating cash flow was $6.06B. A $5.3B working-capital benefit—primarily down payments tied to increased Power orders and slot reservations, plus Electrification customer payments—was a major contributor, alongside stronger adjusted EBITDA. Higher taxes and capital investment partly offset the benefit. Cash ended the quarter at $16.8B, up about $4B sequentially.
- Investment and shareholder returns: GE Vernova repurchased approximately 1.7 million shares for $1.6B and paid a $0.50-per-share quarterly dividend. It returned $5.7B to shareholders in the first nine months of 2026.
- Authorization: In October, the Board increased the repurchase authorization from $10B to $20B; $10.1B remained available after the company had repurchased $9.9B cumulatively through October 23.
- Capacity spending: The company invested $0.6B in Q3 capital expenditures and $0.4B in R&D. Management said combined 2026 R&D and capital expenditures are expected to increase by more than 30% year over year.
Wind recovery
Wind returned to quarterly profitability as services improved and offshore project costs declined, but the longer-term outlook remains constrained by weaker onshore equipment deliveries and ongoing offshore execution. Revenue rose 4% to $2.74B, or 3% organically, while segment EBITDA moved to $72M from a $61M loss. The company resolved outstanding Vineyard Wind litigation in the quarter, with management citing a very modest negative P&L impact.
- Drivers: Higher Onshore Wind services activity and tariff recoveries, together with lower Offshore Wind project costs, supported the margin improvement to 2.6% from negative 2.3%. Lower Onshore Wind equipment volume was a partial offset.
- Full-year context: Management expects Wind organic revenue to decline mid-single digits and segment EBITDA losses of $400M–$500M in 2026. It cited accelerated service maintenance into Q4 and the Vineyard Wind settlement as factors weighing on the full-year loss outlook.
