
CQP · NYSE
Expected to report Feb 25, 2027 — estimated from last year’s reporting date.
Consensus is $1.12 EPS for Dec 2026 across 4 estimates, ranging $1.06 to $1.25.
CQP delivered a modest EPS beat, with third-quarter net income per common unit of $1.01 versus the $0.98 consensus and $0.80 a year earlier. Revenue rose 7% year over year to $2.574 billion, net income advanced 26% to $639 million, and Adjusted EBITDA grew 8% to $954 million. The quarter was much softer sequentially on earnings: revenue was essentially flat with Q2’s $2.58 billion, but operating income declined from $1.34 billion to $815 million and net income from $1.16 billion to $639 million. The year-ago comparison was more favorable, with operating income up from $696 million.
The improvement from last year reflected higher total margins on LNG delivered, with management citing both improved margins per MMBtu and higher volumes recognized in income. Recognized LNG volume was 378 TBtu, slightly above 374 TBtu a year earlier, so pricing and margins—not a large throughput increase—were central to the result. The other defining themes were higher distributions and progress toward the Sabine Pass expansion: the Q3 distribution was $0.890 per unit and the low end of full-year guidance rose by $0.20. The expansion gained a final environmental impact statement, financing commitments, and a QatarEnergy SPA, although key regulatory approvals and a positive FID remain outstanding.
The year-over-year earnings gain came mainly from higher LNG delivery margins, supported by higher pricing and, to a lesser extent, greater production volume. In the quarter, recognized LNG volume increased only 1% to 378 TBtu from 374 TBtu, while cargoes were unchanged at 104. Revenue rose $170 million, but operating costs also increased $51 million, leaving operating income up $119 million to $815 million. Net income reached $639 million, up $133 million, and Adjusted EBITDA was $954 million, up $69 million.
Fair-value movements complicate comparisons, particularly for the nine-month period. CQP reported $208 million of unfavorable derivative-related variances year over year, including $441 million of unfavorable changes on IPM agreements before their June NPNS designation, partly offset by $233 million of favorable changes on other derivative agreements. After the designation, qualifying physical gas purchases under those IPM agreements are no longer marked to market through earnings; deferred balances are instead amortized through cost of sales as gas is delivered and used. CQP recorded a $31 million net reduction to cost of sales from this amortization in the first nine months of 2026. The designation reduces one source of earnings volatility, but other commodity derivatives remain subject to fair-value accounting.
The declared Q3 distribution was $0.890 per common unit, payable November 13 to holders of record November 3. It comprised a $0.775 base distribution, equivalent to $3.10 annualized, plus a $0.115 variable amount. CQP lifted the 2026 distribution range to $3.30–$3.40 per unit from $3.10–$3.40, preserving the $3.10 annualized base while raising the guidance floor. The variable portion reflects, among other considerations, debt repayment reserves, capital needs, and cash reserves.
Development of the first phase advanced, but it remains pre-FID. The phase is planned around Train 7 and supporting infrastructure, with expected capacity above 6 mtpa; the full two-phase project is expected to reach up to approximately 20 mtpa. FERC issued its final environmental impact statement in September, while the Section 3 authorization, construction certification, and DOE authorization for non-FTA exports remained pending. A QatarEnergy agreement covers up to 2 mtpa on an FOB basis from the early 2030s through 2054, with 1 mtpa conditional, among other things, on a positive FID for the first phase. Term-loan commitments are sized to cover approximately 50% of estimated first-phase costs not expected to be funded with available cash; closing and funding also depend on FID and customary conditions. Bechtel’s turnkey EPC contract is in place, with early engineering and procurement underway.