Barclays PLC
BCS · NYSE
Dec 2026
Next quarter
Expected to report Feb 9, 2027 — estimated from last year’s reporting date.
Consensus is $0.48 EPS for Dec 2026 across 1 estimates, ranging $0.48 to $0.48.
BCS Sep 2026
- 1.49%
- $0.67
- $0.66
- —
- —
Highlights
- Earnings and returns: Q3 profit before tax rose 12% year on year to £2.32bn and RoTE improved to 11.7% from 10.6%; EPS was 12.3p, up 18%, while supplied consensus EPS of 0.67 compared with reported 0.66, a 1.49% miss.
- Quarter-on-quarter pullback: Revenue fell 12% from £8.34bn in Q2 to £7.37bn, and profit before tax declined 29% from £3.25bn to £2.32bn; EPS was down from 16.7p. Q2 included the American Airlines portfolio sale gain, while Investment Bank income also eased.
- Net interest income: Group NII was £3.91bn, up 4% year on year and broadly flat sequentially; NII excluding the Investment Bank and Head Office grew 7% year on year to £3.5bn, supported by structural hedge income and lending growth.
- Investment Bank mix: IB income increased 1% year on year to £3.13bn, with Equities up 47% to £1.01bn offset by FICC down 19% to £1.01bn. IB RoTE was 9.5%, against 10.1% a year earlier.
- Costs and efficiency: Total operating expenses were £4.56bn, 1% lower year on year, though operating costs before levies and conduct charges rose 7% to £4.57bn. Barclays took £201m of structural cost actions in Q3 and plans about £300m more in Q4.
- Credit: Impairment charges fell 20% year on year to £503m, taking the loan loss rate to 43bps from 57bps. Year-to-date charges were higher at £1.90bn versus £1.74bn a year earlier, mainly due to larger single-name Investment Bank charges.
- Capital and distributions: CET1 was 14.2%, and Barclays announced a further £500m buyback, bringing year-to-date announced distributions to £2.8bn. The ratio would be 14.0% after accounting for the new buyback.
- Outlook: Barclays reiterated 2026 RoTE above 12%, income of about £31.5bn and costs of about £18.5bn; it expects 2027 costs of about £18.4bn and more than £1.1bn of gross efficiency savings.
Analysis
Barclays delivered a stronger year-on-year quarter but a clear step down from Q2. Q3 revenue increased 3% to £7.37bn and profit before tax rose 12% to £2.32bn, while RoTE improved to 11.7% from 10.6% and EPS rose 18% to 12.3p. The supplied estimate was 0.67 EPS versus reported 0.66, a 1.49% shortfall. Sequentially, revenue fell 12%, profit before tax declined 29% and EPS fell from 16.7p; Q2 included the American Airlines portfolio sale gain and had higher Investment Bank income. Credit charges eased year on year, helping offset cost growth in the underlying operating base.
The print was defined by resilient net interest income, sharply divergent Investment Bank trading lines, and a more deliberate push to lower the cost base. Group NII grew 4% year on year, with UK lending and structural hedge income underpinning gains across divisions; Equities rose 47%, countering a 19% FICC decline. Management retained its 2026 targets, including RoTE above 12%, income of about £31.5bn and total costs of about £18.5bn, while setting 2027 costs at about £18.4bn. The 14.2% CET1 ratio supported a £500m buyback, and a forthcoming 59bp reduction in the Pillar 2A requirement adds capital flexibility, although Basel 3.1 is expected to add £8–15bn of RWAs.
Earnings and returns
- Year-on-year growth: Q3 profit before tax rose 12% to £2.32bn on revenue up 3% to £7.37bn. Attributable profit was £1.65bn, up 13%, and EPS increased 18% to 12.3p.
- Returns: Group RoTE reached 11.7%, compared with 10.6% in Q3 2025; year-to-date RoTE was 13.8%, up from 12.3%. The quarter's 11.7% return was below Q2's 16.1%, alongside lower revenue and profit.
- Cost of credit: Impairment charges of £503m were 20% lower year on year, bringing the quarterly loan loss rate to 43bps from 57bps. For the first nine months, charges rose 9% to £1.90bn, principally from higher single-name Investment Bank charges.
- Quarterly comparison: Revenue decreased from £8.34bn in Q2 to £7.37bn and profit before tax from £3.25bn to £2.32bn. Q2 included the roughly £225m American Airlines portfolio sale gain, while Investment Bank income fell from £3.96bn to £3.13bn.
Net interest and UK growth
- Group NII: NII was £3.91bn, up 4% year on year and nearly unchanged from Q2's £3.92bn. Excluding the Investment Bank and Head Office, NII grew 7% year on year to £3.5bn, supported by higher structural hedge income and lending momentum.
- UK lending: UK loans grew 7% year on year, including 14% growth in UK Corporate Bank lending. Barclays said it had delivered £28bn of the planned approximately £30bn UK business-growth RWAs since 2024, including £3bn in Q3.
- Retail and corporate banking: Barclays UK income rose 4% to £2.35bn, with NII up 6%; its RoTE was 21.2%. UK Corporate Bank income rose 10% to £573m, and RoTE increased to 23.5%.
- Private banking: Private Bank and Wealth Management income grew 10% to £369m and client assets and liabilities reached £234bn, up 6% year on year. Higher investment spending lifted costs 18%, and RoTE declined to 23.8% from 26.4%.
Investment Bank mix
- Trading divergence: IB revenue was £3.13bn, up 1% year on year. Equities climbed 47% to £1.01bn, reflecting growth in prime financing and equity derivatives, while FICC fell 19% to £1.01bn amid weaker client activity in rates and credit, particularly later in the quarter.
- Returns and costs: IB profit before tax rose 9% to £1.01bn, but RoTE fell to 9.5% from 10.1%. Operating costs increased 4% to £2.09bn, including £57m of Q3 structural cost actions and £55m related to the material-risk-taker compensation mix.
- Fee businesses: Investment Banking income decreased 3% to £1.11bn. Advisory and equity capital markets grew 13% and 23%, respectively, while debt capital markets declined 8%; management described M&A and ECM pipelines as strong.
- Balance sheet deployment: IB RWAs increased to £206.1bn from £196.7bn at year-end, reflecting higher market activity and resources deployed to support deal activity, including UK lending. Management said the Investment Banking loan-book review was largely complete.
Costs and efficiency
- Reported expenses: Total operating expenses were £4.56bn, down 1% year on year, as lower litigation and conduct charges offset a rise in operating costs. Operating costs excluding levies and conduct charges increased 7% to £4.57bn, reflecting business growth, inflation and investment, partly offset by about £200m of efficiency savings.
- Structural actions: Barclays took £201m of structural cost actions in Q3, compared with £93m a year earlier, and plans approximately £300m in Q4. Management linked the additional programme to technology-enabled changes and expects around 5,000 fewer full-time employees from its efficiency actions.
- Cost outlook: The bank retained guidance for 2026 total costs of about £18.5bn and gave 2027 guidance of about £18.4bn. It expects more than £1.1bn of gross efficiency savings in 2027, while planning about £400m of additional investment within its modest cost-growth guidance.
- Longer-term targets: Management reiterated a low-50s cost:income ratio in 2028 and more than £2bn of gross efficiency savings across 2026–2028. It expects 2026's cost:income ratio in the high 50s for the full year.
Capital and shareholder returns
- Capital position: CET1 was 14.2% at quarter-end, versus 14.3% at June and December 2025. The announced £500m buyback would reduce the ratio to 14.0%; year-to-date RWAs rose £13.0bn to £369.8bn, mainly from lending growth and increased Investment Bank activity.
- Distributions: The new £500m buyback brought year-to-date announced distributions to £2.8bn. Barclays also reiterated its plan to return at least £10bn to shareholders over 2024–2026 and has announced £10.7bn of distributions since the plan began, including the planned 2026 dividend.
- Regulatory changes: Basel 3.1 is expected to add £8–15bn of RWAs from January 2027, equivalent to 30–55bps of CET1. The expected 59bp reduction in the Pillar 2A requirement would lower the MDA requirement from 12.2% to 11.6%; management said it would update its expected CET1 operating level at full-year results.
- Capital flexibility: Barclays retained its 13–14% CET1 target range and said the plan had not assumed the Pillar 2A reduction. Management plans to absorb the Basel 3.1 impact and consider capital returns and investment priorities after implementation.
Consumer credit and outlook
- US Consumer Bank: Q3 income fell 1% year on year to £928m, while costs rose 14% to £462m in the first full quarter of Best Egg costs. RoTE was 10.9%, down from 13.5% a year earlier; management retained its expectation of about 12% for 2026 excluding the American Airlines sale gain.
- Portfolio and credit: US card 30- and 90-day arrears rates were stable year on year at 2.9% and 1.5%. Barclays expects a seasonally higher Q4 reserve build and a full-year US Consumer Bank loan loss rate of about 550bps; the year-to-date rate was 552bps.
- Motor finance provision: The £430m motor finance provision was unchanged from the first half. Legal challenges have delayed and may affect the FCA redress scheme, leaving the outcome, timing and extent of any remediation uncertain.
- 2026 guidance: Barclays reaffirmed Group RoTE above 12%, income of about £31.5bn and costs of about £18.5bn. Reaching the income target requires Q4 revenue of roughly £7.6bn, around £500m above Q3; management cited continued NII growth, financing and Investment Banking pipelines as contributors.
