United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
UAL · NASDAQ-GS
Next quarter
Expected to report Jan 19, 2027 — estimated from last year’s reporting date.
Consensus is $1.27 EPS for Dec 2026 across 5 estimates, ranging $0.90 to $1.45.
UAL Sep 2026
- 2.31%
- +3.99%
- $2.60
- $2.54
- —
- $17.88B
Reported results
- $17.88B
- $1.45B
- 8.09%
- $1.03B
- $3.14
Highlights
- Record revenue Total operating revenue rose 17.4% year over year to $17.875 billion, while capacity grew 1.3% and TRASM increased 15.9%.
- Adjusted EPS missed expectations Adjusted diluted EPS of $2.54 was 2.3% below the $2.60 consensus and down 8.6% from $2.78 a year ago; GAAP diluted EPS was $3.14, up 8.3%.
- Fuel absorbed much of the growth Fuel expense increased $1.846 billion, or 61.6%, to $4.843 billion. Management said it recaptured 72% of the year-over-year increase, with a lag.
- Costs outpaced revenue CASM-ex rose 7.8% and adjusted operating income fell 6.9% to $1.231 billion; GAAP operating income was $1.446 billion, up 3.6%.
- Q4 revenue and earnings outlook diverge United expects record revenue growth above 20% year over year, but guides to adjusted EPS of $0.50–$1.50 assuming fuel at about $4.80 per gallon.
- Broad revenue strength Premium, Basic Economy and loyalty revenue each grew 17%; contracted business revenue increased 26%, and cargo revenue rose 23%.
- Starlink is scaling More than 640 aircraft are equipped, and about half of United flights now offer the service; management targets 87% of departures by June 1 and fleet-wide availability by year-end 2027.
- Liquidity remains substantial Quarter-end liquidity was $17.7 billion, including undrawn facilities; the revolver was expanded from $3 billion to $5 billion, while net leverage was 2.4x.
Analysis
United delivered record third-quarter revenue, but the print was defined by a sharp fuel-cost shock that limited earnings conversion. Revenue of $17.875 billion grew 17.4% year over year and 1.2% sequentially, while capacity increased just 1.3% and TRASM rose 15.9%. Adjusted diluted EPS of $2.54 missed the $2.60 consensus by 2.3% and declined 8.6% from $2.78 a year ago. GAAP EPS, by contrast, was $3.14, up from $2.90 a year ago and $2.46 in Q2; net income was $1.029 billion versus $949 million a year earlier and $805 million in Q2.
Revenue gains spanned cabins and customer types, including 26% growth in contracted business, while fuel expense surged 61.6% to $4.843 billion. United said it recaptured 72% of the fuel increase, but adjusted operating income fell 6.9% to $1.231 billion and CASM-ex rose 7.8%. Management expects Q4 revenue growth to exceed 20% year over year, alongside adjusted EPS guidance of $0.50–$1.50 with fuel at about $4.80 per gallon. Longer term, United is positioning Starlink and other customer investments as revenue differentiators, while acknowledging that reaching its double-digit pretax-margin goal in 2027 likely also depends on fuel, industry capacity or pricing discipline.
Revenue and unit growth
United’s record top line reflected pricing gains more than added capacity: total revenue per available seat mile rose 15.9% against 1.3% capacity growth. Passenger revenue increased 17.6% to $16.241 billion, with yield up 16.8%; passenger volume rose 2.4%. The load factor eased 0.5 point to 83.9%, consistent with management’s willingness to trade some occupancy for higher fares.
- Cabins and business Premium revenue grew 17% on 2.5% capacity growth; Basic Economy revenue also rose 16%. Contracted business revenue increased 26%, and total business revenue rose 22%.
- Other streams Loyalty revenue increased 17%, with co-brand portfolio spend up 13%; cargo revenue grew 22.9% to $529 million, primarily on higher freight yields.
- Regional picture Domestic passenger PRASM rose 19.9%; Latin America passenger revenue increased 24.2%, while Middle East/India/Africa revenue fell 17.3% amid a 36.5% capacity reduction.
Fuel and cost pressure
Fuel was the main earnings constraint. Average fuel cost reached $3.90 per gallon from $2.43 a year earlier, lifting expense by $1.846 billion even as gallons consumed increased only 0.8%. Management estimated 72% recapture of the year-over-year fuel increase, explaining that much of the latest price rise arrived after fares were already booked. It expects full recapture over time, but with a lag.
- Unit costs CASM increased 17.3%, while CASM-ex rose 7.8% to 13.09 cents. Management said Q3 would be the high point for CASM-ex growth, with deceleration expected in Q4 and a further step-down in 2027.
- Margins Adjusted operating income declined 6.9% to $1.231 billion and adjusted operating margin fell 1.8 points to 6.9%. GAAP operating income increased 3.6% to $1.446 billion, including $215 million of special credits, primarily asset-sale gains.
Fourth-quarter outlook
United expects Q4 total operating revenue to set another record, growing more than 20% year over year, with TRASM accelerating from Q3 and CASM-ex growth decelerating. The earnings range nevertheless reflects elevated fuel and the lag in passing its cost through to fares.
- EPS and fuel Adjusted diluted EPS guidance is $0.50–$1.50, assuming an all-in fuel price of approximately $4.80 per gallon.
- Recapture and demand Management expects fuel recapture in Q4 to be similar to Q3, rather than 100%, following the late-quarter fuel spike. Selling yields had been up in the high teens in recent weeks, with some weeks above 20%.
- 2027 margin goal United reiterated its goal of double-digit pretax margins, but said Starlink’s expected revenue benefit alone may not be sufficient if fuel and industry capacity remain elevated. Management cited lower fuel, lower industry capacity or continued industry preference for yield over load factor as potential additional supports.
Starlink and customer loyalty
United presented Starlink as both a customer-experience investment and a potential unit-revenue advantage. More than 640 aircraft are equipped, with roughly three aircraft added per day; the service was available on about half of departures and reached more than 5.4 million customers in September. The company plans coverage on 61% of departures by year-end 2026, 87% by June 1, and across the fleet by year-end 2027. Management says customers are trying United for connectivity and staying for the broader app, service and onboard experience.
- Customer indicators United reported its highest third-quarter customer satisfaction score since 2022. Customer-service scores on Starlink-equipped aircraft were nearly twice those on aircraft with other Wi-Fi.
- Loyalty pipeline The company expects to add 1 million co-brand card accounts in 2026 and another 1 million in 2027; management sees potential for loyalty revenue growth of at least 14%–15% in coming years.
Liquidity and balance sheet
United ended Q3 with $17.7 billion of available liquidity, including undrawn credit facilities, and reported $26.4 billion of debt, finance leases and other financial liabilities. Net leverage was 2.4x, up from 2.1x a year earlier. The company’s financial flexibility is supported by a larger revolving facility, although cash generation and investment needs remain relevant: adjusted free cash flow was negative $1.843 billion in Q3, versus negative $153 million a year ago.
- Revolver On October 16, United increased commitments from $3 billion to $5 billion and extended maturity to October 2031. Management plans to hold year-end liquidity near $18 billion and said the facility change is expected to save about $70 million annually in interest and fees.
- Investment and debt Q3 adjusted capital expenditures were $2.193 billion. Management said it paid down about $1 billion of debt during the quarter and continues to target net leverage below 2x and investment-grade credit metrics.
