Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) Earnings

metirFinance

Dec 2026upcoming

Next quarter

Expected to report Feb 16, 2027 — estimated from last year’s reporting date.

Consensus is $1.76 EPS for Dec 2026 across 10 estimates, ranging $1.63 to $1.81.

RSG Sep 2026

Reported Oct 29, 2026 · after the close

: 1.04%
: +3.28%

: $1.92
: $1.94
: —
: $4.56B

Reported results

: $4.56B; from $4.21B
: 41.59%; from 41.52%
: $921.00M; from $836.00M
: 20.20%; from 19.85%
: $591.56M; from $549.67M
: $1.93; from $1.76

Highlights

EPS and earnings: Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.94, 2 cents above the $1.92 consensus; GAAP diluted EPS was $1.93, up 9.7% year over year and 5.4% from Q2.
Revenue growth: Revenue rose 8.2% year over year to $4.56 billion, including 4.8% growth from recycling and waste, 2.1% from Environmental Solutions and 1.3% from acquisitions.
Pricing and volume: Core price added 5.3% to total revenue and fuel recovery fees added 1.8%; total volume reduced growth by 0.6%. Related-business volume was down 0.7%, but small- and large-container volumes each grew 0.5%.
Environmental Solutions: Revenue grew 21%, including several large emergency-response jobs; growth was about 9% excluding those jobs. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 440 basis points year over year to 25.4%.
Profitability: Operating income increased 10.2% to $921 million, while adjusted EBITDA grew 4.8% to $1.45 billion. Adjusted EBITDA margin declined 100 basis points year over year to 31.8%.
Raised 2026 outlook: Revenue guidance is $17.425–$17.475 billion, adjusted EBITDA $5.550–$5.575 billion and adjusted free cash flow $2.565–$2.585 billion. At the midpoint, management said the updated outlook added about $200 million of revenue and $25 million of EBITDA versus July guidance.
Cash and investment: Year-to-date operating cash flow was $3.52 billion and adjusted free cash flow $2.28 billion. The company invested $1.12 billion in acquisitions and returned $1.43 billion to shareholders through repurchases and dividends.
Capital returns: The board authorized $5 billion of share repurchases for 2027–2029; the existing program had $0.8 billion of capacity remaining through year-end 2026.

Analysis

Republic posted a strong revenue and GAAP earnings quarter, with adjusted EPS of $1.94 modestly ahead of the $1.92 consensus. Revenue of $4.56 billion increased 8.2% year over year and 2.9% sequentially; operating income rose 10.2% year over year to $921 million. GAAP diluted EPS of $1.93 compared with $1.76 a year earlier and $1.84 in Q2. The year-ago comparison included labor-disruption costs, helping GAAP EPS growth outpace adjusted EPS growth: adjusted EPS increased 2.1% to $1.94 from $1.90.

Pricing remained the central growth engine, with core price contributing 5.3% to total revenue and higher fuel recovery fees adding 1.8%, while volume was a 0.6% drag. The more encouraging volume signal was growth in both small and large containers, alongside a return to positive underlying volume excluding prior-year landfill event work. Environmental Solutions also rebounded sharply, with revenue up 21% and margin reaching 25.4%, though large emergency-response jobs contributed; growth excluding those jobs was about 9%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 4.8% to $1.45 billion, but margin fell to 31.8% amid fuel, healthcare and landfill-event pressures. Republic raised its full-year revenue, EBITDA and free-cash-flow ranges, with much of the revenue increase tied to fuel recovery fees.

Pricing and volume

Pricing and fuel recovery fees drove most of the quarter’s growth, while operating volumes showed a mixed but improving picture. Management said the 50-basis-point sequential moderation in related-business average yield partly reflected profitable new business and higher service levels, which can bring in units at rates below the existing average.

Revenue bridge: Total revenue growth was 8.2%, made up of 6.9% internal growth and 1.3% net acquisition growth. Internal growth included 5.3% core price, 1.8% fuel recovery fees, a 0.6% volume decline, 2.1% from Environmental Solutions, and smaller contributions from recycling and other items.
Related-business pricing: Core price was 6.3%, including 7.6% in open-market business and 4.1% in restricted business. Average yield was 3.5%, down from 4.0% in Q2; fuel recovery fees lifted the combined price contribution to more than 8%.
Volume mix: Related-business volume declined 0.7%, but was up 0.2% excluding the 90-basis-point headwind from prior-year landfill event volumes. Small- and large-container volumes each grew 0.5%; residential volume fell 4.3%, partly reflecting municipal contract losses.

Environmental Solutions recovery

Environmental Solutions was the clearest business-specific positive. Revenue increased $96 million year over year, supported by a few large emergency-response projects and broader improvement across hazardous-waste landfills, E&P, treatment and field services. Management described demand as broad-based, while cautioning that emergency-response work makes quarterly results lumpy.

Growth: Revenue rose 21% against the prior-year period; management put growth at about 9% excluding the large emergency-response jobs.
Margins: Adjusted EBITDA was $134 million and margin was 25.4%, up 440 basis points year over year. The prior-year margin was 21.0%.
Outlook: The company expects positive Environmental Solutions revenue growth through year-end and into 2027. Management sees room for continued margin improvement but emphasized that work mix affects quarterly incrementals.

Margins and cost pressure

Adjusted EBITDA grew more slowly than revenue, and margin contracted as fuel and healthcare costs weighed on the quarter. The fuel-recovery mechanism offsets changing diesel costs over time, but management said rising fuel costs are initially dilutive to margin. It also expects the elevated healthcare claims experience to normalize: claims had returned to more typical levels in October.

Overall profitability: Adjusted EBITDA increased 4.8% to $1.449 billion, while adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 31.8% from 32.8% a year earlier.
Identified margin effects: Management cited 50 basis points of pressure from net fuel, 40 basis points from the prior-year landfill event-volume comparison and 60 basis points from healthcare costs, including a nonrecurring prior-year rebate and higher large claims.
Offsetting performance: The rest of the business expanded margin by 50 basis points. Recycling and Waste adjusted EBITDA was $1.315 billion, with a 32.6% margin compared with 34.2% a year earlier.

Guidance and cash flow

Republic lifted its full-year ranges based on results to date and its outlook for the rest of 2026. The revenue increase is not solely a signal of stronger underlying demand: management attributed most of the midpoint increase versus July to higher fuel recovery fees following elevated diesel prices. Adjusted free cash flow is a non-GAAP measure and excludes some committed cash uses, including debt service and dividends.

Updated 2026 ranges: Revenue of $17.425–$17.475 billion; adjusted EBITDA of $5.550–$5.575 billion; adjusted free cash flow of $2.565–$2.585 billion.
Guidance change: Versus July guidance, the midpoint increased about $200 million for revenue and $25 million for adjusted EBITDA. Management attributed about $150 million of the revenue increase to fuel fees and $50 million to Environmental Solutions.
Year-to-date cash generation: Operating cash flow was $3.519 billion, up from $3.315 billion in the prior-year period; adjusted free cash flow was $2.276 billion versus $2.191 billion.

Capital allocation

The company continued to deploy capital across acquisitions and shareholder returns, while announcing a larger future repurchase authorization. Management expects at least $1.2 billion of acquisition investment for 2026 and described its active pipeline as weighted toward smaller tuck-in deals across recycling and waste and Environmental Solutions.

Acquisitions: Cash invested year to date was $1.12 billion; management expects at least $1.2 billion for the full year.
Shareholder returns: Year-to-date returns totaled $1.43 billion, comprising $848 million of repurchases and $577 million of dividends. The quarterly dividend was raised to $0.670 per share from $0.625 a year earlier.
Repurchase authorization: The board approved $5 billion of capacity effective January 1, 2027, through December 31, 2029. The prior authorization had $0.8 billion remaining through December 31, 2026.
Digital initiatives: AI-enabled pricing tools are deployed across the business, while an AI-enhanced routing platform is expected to begin full-scale deployment early in 2027. Management remains on track for a $100 million EBITDA run rate from these initiatives by the end of 2028.

Republic Services, Inc.

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