Progressive Corporation (The)
PGR · NYSE
Next quarter
Expected to report Jan 27, 2027 — estimated from last year’s reporting date.
Consensus is $4.02 EPS for Dec 2026 across 10 estimates, ranging $3.43 to $4.53.
PGR Sep 2026
- 3.14%
- $4.46
- $4.60
- —
- $23.19B
Reported results
- $23.19B
- $2.54B
- $4.37
Highlights
- Underwriting: Third-quarter net premiums earned rose 5% year over year to $21.869B, while the combined ratio improved 0.8 percentage points to 88.7.
- Earnings: The release reports Q3 net income of $2.542B, down 3% year over year, and diluted EPS of $4.37, down 2%. EPS was below Q2's $5.67.
- EPS data conflict: The supplied estimate snapshot lists reported EPS of $4.60 versus $4.46 consensus, a 3.14% beat; the earnings release instead reports Q3 diluted EPS of $4.37, so the stated beat does not reconcile to the filing.
- Premium growth: Third-quarter net premiums written increased 4% to $22.301B. Total policies in force reached 40.489M at September 30, up 6% year over year.
- Revenue: Q3 revenue is approximately $23.19B, derived from year-to-date revenue of $68.989B less the supplied Q1 and Q2 figures; that is about 3% above Q3 2025's $22.51B.
- YTD results: Through September, net premiums earned increased 6% to $64.410B and net income rose 4% to $8.671B; the year-to-date combined ratio was 87.5 versus 89.0.
- Investment marks: September included $231M of pretax realized losses on securities and a $1.309B decline in unrealized fixed-maturity gains, producing a monthly comprehensive loss of $679M despite $630M of net income.
Analysis
Progressive's third quarter combined continued premium growth with slightly better underwriting, but lower net income than a year earlier and a sharp sequential decline from Q2. Net premiums earned increased 5% to $21.869B, and net premiums written rose 4% to $22.301B. The combined ratio improved to 88.7 from 89.5, while net income was $2.542B, down 3% from $2.615B in Q3 2025 and below Q2 2026's $3.31B. The release reports diluted EPS of $4.37, versus $4.45 a year ago and $5.67 in Q2. Revenue works out to approximately $23.19B using year-to-date revenue less the supplied first-half quarters, about 3% above the $22.51B year-ago quarter.
There is an important mismatch in the supplied expectations data: it identifies reported EPS as $4.60 against $4.46 consensus, a 3.14% beat, whereas the earnings release's quarterly EPS is $4.37. The release therefore does not substantiate that stated beat. The quarter's broader picture is clearer in operating measures: policies in force grew 6% to 40.489M, and year-to-date net income increased 4% to $8.671B on a 87.5 combined ratio. Investment-market volatility affected reported comprehensive income, including a $1.309B September unrealized fixed-income loss.
Underwriting and reserves
- Quarterly performance: The combined ratio was 88.7, an improvement of 0.8 percentage points from 89.5 in Q3 2025. Net premiums earned grew 5% to $21.869B, while net premiums written advanced 4% to $22.301B.
- Year-to-date margins: Through September, the combined ratio was 87.5 versus 89.0 in the prior-year period. The year-to-date accident-year loss and LAE ratio was 69.6, compared with a calendar-year ratio of 67.2.
- Reserve development: Progressive reported $1.536B of favorable prior-accident-year development year to date, including $481M from actuarial adjustments and $1.055B from other development. Year-to-date calendar-year actuarial adjustments reduced reserves by $790M, including $481M for prior years and $309M for the current year.
Premiums and policies
- Portfolio growth: Policies in force totaled 40.489M at September 30, up 6% year over year. Personal Lines grew 6% to 39.237M and Commercial Lines increased 5% to 1.252M.
- Personal auto: Direct auto policies rose 8% to 16.848M, while agency auto increased 7% to 11.347M. Special lines grew 6% to 7.390M; property policies were essentially flat at 3.652M.
- Year-to-date premiums: Net premiums written increased 5% to $67.019B and earned premiums rose 6% to $64.410B. Direct auto earned premiums grew 11% year to date, while Commercial Lines earned premiums declined 2%.
Earnings and comparison
- Reported results: Third-quarter net income was $2.542B, down 3% from $2.615B in Q3 2025. Diluted EPS was $4.37 versus $4.45 a year earlier; the earnings release shows an 88.7 combined ratio and a 2% year-over-year decline in EPS.
- Sequential comparison: Net income and diluted EPS were lower than Q2 2026's $3.31B and $5.67, respectively. Revenue is approximately $23.19B, calculated as $68.989B year-to-date revenue less the supplied Q1 and Q2 revenue figures.
- Expectation discrepancy: The provided consensus data says EPS was $4.60 against $4.46 expected, implying a 3.14% beat. That reported figure conflicts with the release's $4.37 quarterly diluted EPS; the supplied material does not explain the difference.
Investment results
- September market marks: The month produced $231M of pretax realized losses on securities, mostly from $228M of holding-period losses. Net income was $630M, but a $1.309B decline in unrealized fixed-maturity gains resulted in a $679M comprehensive loss.
- Year-to-date portfolio: Investment income rose to $2.931B from $2.609B in the prior-year period. Net realized securities gains were $314M versus $470M a year earlier, and the total portfolio's year-to-date return was negative 0.3%, compared with a positive 6.1% in 2025.
- Balance sheet: At September 30, investments totaled $99.197B, book value was $59.51 per share, and debt-to-total capital was 19.6%. Net unrealized pretax losses on fixed maturities were $3.455B.
