Moderna, Inc.
MRNA · Nasdaq
Next quarter
Consensus is -$1.47 EPS for Sep 2026 across 8 estimates, ranging -$3.32 to -$0.80.
MRNA Jun 2026
- 0.00%
- +0.58%
- -$1.97
- -$1.97
- —
- $145.00M
Reported results
- $145.00M
- 35.86%
- -$815.00M
- -562.07%
- -$782.00M
- -$1.97
Highlights
- Revenue: Second-quarter revenue was $145 million, up 2% from $142 million a year ago but down 63% from $389 million in the first quarter; EPS of $(1.97) matched consensus.
- Losses: GAAP net loss was $782 million, or $(1.97) per diluted share, versus $825 million, or $(2.13) per share, a year ago and $1.34 billion, or $(3.40) per share, in the prior quarter.
- 2026 outlook: Moderna reiterated its target for up to 10% revenue growth and lowered expected GAAP operating expenses by roughly $200 million, including R&D at approximately $2.9 billion and cost of sales at approximately $1.7 billion.
- Cash: Cash, cash equivalents and investments were $6.9 billion at June 30, down from $7.5 billion at March 31; the company expects year-end cash of $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion after paying the $950 million litigation settlement in July.
- Commercial sales: Net product sales fell 18% year over year to $94 million as lower U.S. and South American COVID vaccine sales offset U.K. deliveries; other revenue rose 82% to $51 million.
- Influenza catalyst: Moderna is awaiting an August 5 PDUFA decision for its seasonal influenza candidate, which could become its fifth approved product; it also has EU authorization for mCOMBRIAX.
- Norovirus setback: The Phase 3 mRNA-1403 norovirus study did not meet statistical criteria for early success at interim analysis, and Moderna plans to enroll an additional cohort while the trial remains blinded.
- Pipeline: Nine Phase 2 and Phase 3 intismeran trials are underway with Merck, while five-year melanoma data showed a 49% reduction in recurrence or death versus KEYTRUDA alone; PA therapeutic enrollment is complete with potential 2026 data.
Analysis
Moderna’s second quarter was a seasonally light and largely in-line financial print, with revenue of $145 million broadly matching the $142 million year-ago period and EPS of $(1.97) exactly matching consensus. The net loss narrowed 5% year over year to $782 million, while operating loss improved 10% to $815 million. Sequentially, however, revenue fell from $389 million in the first quarter and the operating loss improved from $1.39 billion, reflecting the timing of vaccine and partnership revenue rather than a sharp change in the underlying commercial profile.
The quarter was defined by cost control, a near-term influenza regulatory catalyst and a mixed pipeline update. R&D declined 7% year over year to $651 million and SG&A fell 6% to $216 million, supporting a roughly $200 million reduction in the full-year operating expense outlook. Product sales declined 18% to $94 million, but higher stand-ready manufacturing and collaboration revenue lifted total revenue. Moderna reiterated up to 10% 2026 revenue growth and raised its year-end cash outlook to $4.7 billion-$5.2 billion despite $1.2 billion of operating cash burn in the first half and the subsequent $950 million settlement payment. The mRNA-1403 interim failure added a pipeline setback ahead of the August 5 flu decision and potential 2026 oncology and rare-disease readouts.
Financial outlook and costs
Moderna used the quarter to emphasize operating discipline rather than near-term profitability. Total operating expenses fell 8% year over year to $960 million, with R&D down 7% to $651 million and SG&A down 6% to $216 million. Cost of sales declined 22% to $93 million, although it still included $41 million of inventory write-downs and $23 million of unutilized manufacturing capacity costs.
- Guidance: The company reiterated up to 10% 2026 revenue growth and reduced expected full-year cost of sales to approximately $1.7 billion from $1.8 billion, R&D to approximately $2.9 billion from $3.0 billion, and year-end cash to $4.7 billion-$5.2 billion.
- Expense base: Full-year SG&A is projected at approximately $1.0 billion and capital expenditures at $200 million-$300 million.
- Reported loss: Operating loss was $815 million versus $907 million a year ago and $1.39 billion in Q1; net loss was $782 million versus $825 million a year ago and $1.34 billion in Q1.
Commercial revenue mix
The quarter showed little year-over-year revenue growth, but the mix shifted away from product sales toward partnerships and manufacturing services. Product sales were pressured by lower COVID vaccine demand in the U.S. and South America, while U.K. deliveries under a long-term government partnership and other revenue streams provided an offset.
- Product sales: Net product sales were $94 million, down $20 million, or 18%, from $114 million a year ago. COVID products contributed $91 million and RSV contributed $3 million.
- Other revenue: Other revenue increased 82% to $51 million from $28 million, including $31 million of stand-ready manufacturing revenue and $15 million of collaboration revenue.
- Geography: Revenue was $87 million in the U.S. and $58 million internationally. Management expects approximately 50% of 2026 revenue from each region and approximately 55% of second-half revenue to be recognized in Q3.
- Portfolio expansion: mCOMBRIAX received European Commission authorization, while Moderna signed an EU joint procurement contract covering up to 24 million mRESVIA doses across six countries.
Cash and settlement burden
Moderna remains well funded but continues to consume cash while commercial revenue is seasonal and the pipeline requires substantial investment. Cash, cash equivalents and investments declined to $6.9 billion from $7.5 billion at March 31 and $8.1 billion at December 31, 2025.
- Cash burn: Net cash used in operating activities was $1.16 billion in the first half, compared with $1.96 billion in the prior-year period; capital expenditures were $99 million.
- Litigation payment: Moderna paid the $950 million Arbutus and Genevant settlement in July after recording $884 million of settlement-related cost of sales and intangible-asset amortization in the first half.
- Remaining exposure: The settlement resolves worldwide litigation and eliminates future royalties, but Moderna could owe up to an additional $1.3 billion depending on the outcome of its appeal.
- Liquidity access: The company had $600 million drawn under a $1.5 billion credit facility, with $900 million of delayed-draw commitments available subject to conditions.
Influenza and vaccine catalysts
Regulatory progress in influenza is the main near-term commercial catalyst. Moderna received a unanimous VRBPAC recommendation for its seasonal flu candidate, with an August 5 PDUFA date that could result in the company’s fifth approved product. Separately, mCOMBRIAX is authorized in the EU but had not yet been commercialized as of June 30.
- Seasonal flu: The FDA decision for the influenza candidate is scheduled for August 5, 2026, with filings also under review in Europe, Canada and Australia.
- Combination vaccine: mCOMBRIAX has European authorization for adults aged 50 and older; regulatory filings are under review in Japan, Canada and Australia.
- Partnership support: Moderna expanded its CEPI collaboration, with up to $50 million committed for preclinical, Phase 1 and manufacturing work on a Bundibugyo ebolavirus vaccine candidate.
Pipeline signal and setback
The pipeline update was mixed. Moderna highlighted continued progress in oncology and rare disease, but the interim norovirus result weakened one of its late-stage infectious-disease opportunities and prompted a slower path to a definitive readout.
- Norovirus: The Phase 3 mRNA-1403 study failed to meet statistical criteria for early success at interim analysis. The trial remains blinded, and Moderna is preparing to enroll an additional cohort.
- Oncology: Nine Phase 2 and Phase 3 intismeran trials are underway with Merck across melanoma, NSCLC, bladder and renal cell carcinoma; Phase 3 adjuvant melanoma data are possible in 2026.
- Melanoma data: Five-year Phase 2b results showed intismeran plus KEYTRUDA reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49% versus KEYTRUDA alone.
- Rare disease: The registrational propionic acidemia study has reached target enrollment, with potential 2026 data; the pivotal-trial decision for the MMA program is deferred until that readout.
