Exelon Corporation
EXC · NASDAQ-GS
Next quarter
Expected to report Feb 11, 2027 — estimated from last year’s reporting date.
Consensus is $0.73 EPS for Dec 2026 across 4 estimates, ranging $0.63 to $0.78.
EXC Sep 2026
- 8.75%
- $0.80
- $0.87
- —
- —
Highlights
- Adjusted earnings: Q3 adjusted operating EPS was $0.87, 8.75% above the $0.80 consensus and up from $0.86 a year earlier; GAAP EPS was $0.70 versus $0.86.
- 2026 outlook: Exelon narrowed its adjusted EPS guidance to $2.85–$2.91 and reaffirmed 2025–2029 annualized growth near the top of its 5%–7% range.
- Rate-base contribution: Approved distribution and transmission rates added $0.06 per share year over year, helping offset $0.07 from storm activity and $0.04 from higher interest and tax expense.
- GAAP adjustments: $0.17 per share of excluded items lifted adjusted EPS above GAAP, including $130 million of regulatory matters, $26 million of project impairments and $15 million of cost-management costs.
- Utility mix: Adjusted earnings rose at ComEd to $412 million from $373 million, BGE to $119 million from $82 million and PHI to $320 million from $290 million; PECO fell to $167 million from $250 million.
- Reliability and investment: Exelon said its utilities rank first, second, fifth and sixth nationally for reliability; year-to-date grid investments helped avert an estimated 6.6 million customer outages across 31 significant weather events.
- Growth runway: The $41.7 billion capital plan supports 7.9% rate-base growth, while Exelon identified a further $12 billion–$17 billion of transmission and $3 billion–$7 billion of potential storage investment.
- Financing: Exelon completed all planned 2026 debt financings; approximately 30% of its $3.4 billion planned equity needs through 2029 has been priced, including all $850 million of 2026 needs.
Analysis
Exelon’s third-quarter 2026 adjusted operating EPS of $0.87 beat the supplied $0.80 consensus by 8.75% and edged up from $0.86 a year earlier. The GAAP result was weaker: EPS fell to $0.70 from $0.86, net income declined to $729 million from $875 million, and operating income decreased to $1.38 billion from $1.50 billion. Revenue rose 9% to $7.32 billion from $6.71 billion. The $0.17-per-share gap between GAAP and adjusted EPS primarily reflects excluded regulatory matters, project impairments and cost-management costs. The supplied quarter history includes Q1 FY2026 but not Q2; against that available Q1 reference, Q3 revenue was $7.32 billion versus $7.24 billion, while operating income and net income were lower than Q1’s $1.60 billion and $919 million, respectively.
The core operating story was rate recovery and grid investment supporting adjusted earnings, partly offset by storms, higher costs and a difficult PECO comparison. Exelon narrowed full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $2.85–$2.91 and maintained its longer-term growth outlook near the top of 5%–7%. Management also emphasized a durable $41.7 billion investment plan, strong reliability performance, and potential transmission and storage projects beyond that base plan. Those opportunities remain subject to approvals and recovery mechanisms; the company said it will pursue them where customer need and project economics support investment.
Earnings and guidance
Adjusted operating earnings increased by $23 million year over year to $897 million, or $0.87 per share from $0.86. The earnings bridge included $67 million from distribution and transmission rates, $115 million from other energy delivery and $17 million from weather. These contributions were partly offset by $69 million of higher operating and maintenance expense, $47 million of depreciation and amortization, $49 million of interest expense and other costs, and $11 million from load. Management said results were ahead of its expectations from the second-quarter call, citing favorable weather and the timing of operating and maintenance spending.
Full-year adjusted EPS guidance was narrowed to $2.85–$2.91, with management targeting the midpoint or better. The fourth-quarter outlook assumes normal weather and storm activity, reversal of timing impacts, approved rates and reasonable outcomes in proceedings. Exelon reaffirmed expected annualized adjusted EPS growth near the top of its 5%–7% range from 2025 through 2029.
Utility earnings
- ComEd: Adjusted earnings rose to $412 million from $373 million, driven by higher distribution and transmission rate base from customer-serving investment and higher AFUDC.
- PECO: Adjusted earnings declined to $167 million from $250 million. Higher storm costs—including the absence of extraordinary storm-cost deferrals recognized in 2025—taxes, contracting, depreciation and interest outweighed the benefit of no longer providing surcharge credits and favorable weather.
- BGE: Adjusted earnings increased to $119 million from $82 million, reflecting approved distribution rates tied to investment recovery and lower contracting costs.
- PHI: Adjusted earnings increased to $320 million from $290 million on approved distribution rates, partly offset by higher storm, depreciation and interest costs. GAAP net income at PHI was $187 million versus $291 million, including the impact of items excluded from adjusted earnings.
Grid investment and reliability
Exelon’s $41.7 billion capital plan is expected to support 7.9% rate-base growth, including 16% growth in transmission. Management said the four operating companies ranked first, second, fifth and sixth nationally for electric reliability. Across approximately 31 significant weather events year to date—including three ComEd storms affecting more than 400,000 customers each—grid investments were estimated to have prevented 6.6 million customer outages; 94% of affected customers were restored within 48 hours. Exelon said customer rates were 19% below those in the largest U.S. cities and bills as a share of median income were 20% below the national average.
Regulatory and growth pipeline
- Potential investment: Beyond the current plan, Exelon identified $12 billion–$17 billion of transmission opportunities over the next decade and 1.5–3.5 GW, or $3 billion–$7 billion, of potential regulated storage investment. These amounts depend on approvals and customer protections; management indicated transmission could take three to seven years to become operational, while the proposed New Jersey battery could be operating in just under three years after approval.
- New Jersey storage: The proposed 500 MW project with Invenergy is expected to provide more than $700 million in net customer benefits. Exelon expects a state decision late in Q1 2027 and said the project would have no customer bill impact during its first five years of operation.
- Maryland rates: The final Pepco Maryland electric rate order approved a $50.9 million annual revenue increase, a 9.4% return on equity and a 50.5% equity ratio, with rates effective August 10. BGE’s electric distribution case remained on schedule, with an order expected in January 2027.
- Other proceedings: DPL expects an order on its Delaware electric rate case in Q3 2027 and interim rates at 75% of its request in December, subject to refund. ComEd’s annual reconciliation settlement set a $205 million delivery adjustment, with a final order expected by December 20.
Capital and financing
Exelon said it had completed 100% of its planned 2026 debt financing, reducing exposure to interest-rate changes for the year. The company’s balance-sheet plan includes approximately $3.4 billion of equity needs through 2029; it has priced about 30% through four at-the-market contracts, including all $850 million of 2026 needs, which it expects to settle by December 15. Management expects average credit metrics of approximately 14% through 2029, around 200 basis points above Moody’s downgrade threshold and 100 basis points above S&P’s. It said a 50-basis-point rate increase would have an estimated earnings impact of about $0.01 per share.
