Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) Earnings

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Dec 2026upcoming

Next quarter

Expected to report Feb 4, 2027 — estimated from last year’s reporting date.

Consensus is $0.62 EPS for Dec 2026 across 5 estimates, ranging $0.57 to $0.67.

CARR Sep 2026

Reported Oct 29, 2026 · before the open

: 7.41%

: $0.81
: $0.87
: —
: $6.26B

Reported results

: $6.26B; from $5.58B
: -$2.27B; from $539.00M
: -36.29%; from 9.66%
: -$2.59B; from $428.00M
: -$3.16; from $0.50

Highlights

Underlying growth: Q3 sales were $6.26 billion, up 12% reported and 15% organically year over year; adjusted operating profit rose about 35%, with margin expansion of 260 basis points.
EPS and impairment: EPS of $0.87 topped the $0.81 consensus. Adjusted EPS increased 30%, or about 15% excluding IEEPA refunds; reported results showed a $2.27 billion operating loss and $2.59 billion net loss, alongside management’s disclosure of a Climate Solutions Europe impairment.
Data center demand: Global data center orders rose 300%; year-to-date orders exceeded $3 billion, up nearly 350%. Q3 data center sales topped $550 million, and Carrier remains on track for $2 billion in full-year sales.
Backlog and customer commitments: Total orders increased 35%, and backlog reached a record more than $8.5 billion, excluding minimum-volume commitments. Carrier also signed a hyperscaler agreement worth more than $3 billion, with a significant portion covered by a minimum-volume commitment.
Price-cost pressure: Management cited $550 million-$600 million of unexpected in-year input-cost headwinds versus its February plan, within about $800 million of full-year input-cost headwinds; slightly less than half of the latter is tariffs. A roughly $130 million IEEPA refund benefit lifted Q3 margins.
Raised sales outlook: Carrier now expects nearly $24 billion of 2026 sales and about 10% organic growth, up from a prior outlook of a little over $23 billion. Adjusted EPS guidance remains $2.85-$2.90, while CSA’s full-year operating-margin outlook fell to about 19%.
Cash and investment: Q3 free cash flow was close to $700 million and year-to-date free cash flow was $1.5 billion. Carrier plans a new Fort Worth manufacturing and engineering site, expected to begin customer deliveries in late summer 2027.

Analysis

Carrier’s Q3 combined strong operating momentum with a sharp divide between adjusted performance and reported results. Sales of $6.26 billion rose 12% year over year, led by 15% organic growth, but slipped from $6.35 billion in Q2. EPS of $0.87 beat the $0.81 consensus; management said adjusted EPS grew 30%, or about 15% excluding IEEPA refunds. In contrast, reported results were a $2.27 billion operating loss and a $2.59 billion net loss, versus operating income of $539 million and net income of $428 million a year earlier. Management disclosed a Climate Solutions Europe impairment but did not quantify it on the call.

The defining operating story was commercial HVAC, especially data centers: orders surged, backlog set a record, and a large hyperscaler agreement added visibility. Growth was broadening too, with residential sales in the Americas up more than 30% and strong European heat-pump and air-conditioning demand. The counterweight is price-cost execution: sudden tariffs and other input inflation outpaced pricing, and CSA margins excluding refunds were weaker than expected. Carrier raised its sales outlook but held adjusted EPS guidance at $2.85-$2.90, lowered CSA’s full-year margin outlook to about 19%, and said it is targeting double-digit EPS growth in 2027 without giving formal guidance.

Data center growth

Orders and sales: Global data center orders increased 300% in Q3; year-to-date orders exceeded $3 billion, nearly 350% above the year-earlier period. Q3 data center sales topped $550 million, exceeding the company’s target, with full-year sales still expected to reach $2 billion.
Visibility: Carrier’s total backlog exceeded $8.5 billion, a record that excludes minimum-volume commitments under long-term agreements. A newly signed hyperscaler agreement is worth more than $3 billion, with a significant portion covered by a minimum-volume commitment.
Capacity and offering: Management said data center sales are margin-accretive to the applied business. The planned Fort Worth site will add capacity, insource key components and expand testing; customer deliveries are expected to start in late summer 2027. Carrier is also taking orders for liquid-cooling CDUs and integrated cooling and building-management offerings.

Margins and guidance

Q3 drivers: Adjusted operating profit grew about 35% and adjusted operating margin expanded 260 basis points. A roughly $130 million IEEPA refund benefit helped offset higher input costs and supply-chain challenges; CSA’s 22.2% segment margin was above guidance because of the refunds, while underlying margin was weaker than expected.
Cost burden: The company put unexpected in-year input-cost headwinds at $550 million-$600 million versus its February plan, and total full-year input-cost headwinds at about $800 million, slightly less than half from tariffs. Gross productivity is expected to be about $600 million this year.
Pricing response: Price realization in CSA residential was low single digits in Q3, below the mid-single-digit level previously expected. Carrier has announced price increases of up to 10% across CSA, including an 8% residential increase effective later in Q4, alongside productivity and supply-chain actions.
Outlook: The 2026 sales outlook rose to nearly $24 billion, with about 10% organic growth, from a prior view of a little over $23 billion. Adjusted EPS guidance remains $2.85-$2.90, as do adjusted operating-profit, free-cash-flow and share-repurchase outlooks; CSA’s full-year margin outlook was reduced to about 19%. Management expects price-cost pressure to improve sequentially but not snap back immediately, and is targeting double-digit EPS growth in 2027.

Residential and Europe

Americas residential: CSA residential sales grew more than 30%, helped by the absence of destocking; field inventories ended Q3 about flat year over year and are expected to remain flat at year-end. Management now sees the U.S. residential market at 7.5 million-8 million units, versus its earlier expectation of fewer than 7 million.
Europe recovery: Climate Solutions Europe organic sales rose 12%, with heat-pump and air-conditioning sales each up about 35%; boiler sales declined high single digits. Segment margins returned to double digits. Management described demand as strong but said cost reduction, footprint optimization and supply-chain work are needed to restore expected margins.
Other commercial demand: Non-data center commercial orders increased 20% globally. CSA commercial sales rose more than 25%, and management cited demand in areas including industrial, healthcare, hospitality and semiconductor fabrication.

Reported results and cash

Reported versus adjusted: Revenue of $6.26 billion compared with $5.58 billion in Q3 2025 and $6.35 billion in Q2 2026. Reported operating income of $-2.27 billion and net income of $-2.59 billion contrasted with year-ago income of $539 million and $428 million, respectively; management disclosed an impairment in Climate Solutions Europe. Its call commentary focused on continuing operations excluding restructuring and certain significant non-recurring items.
Cash generation: Free cash flow was close to $700 million in Q3 and $1.5 billion year to date.

Carrier Global Corporation

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