BP p.l.c. (BP) Earnings

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Dec 2026upcoming

Next quarter

Expected to report Feb 9, 2027 — estimated from last year’s reporting date.

Consensus is $1.91 EPS for Dec 2026 across 5 estimates, ranging $1.20 to $2.85.

BP Sep 2026

Reported Oct 30, 2026 · before the open

: 22.56%
: Pending

: $2.66
: $3.26
: —
: —

Highlights

Earnings beat: Q3 reported EPS was $3.26 versus consensus of $2.66, a 22.56% surprise; underlying replacement cost profit was $8.5 billion, up $2.7 billion from Q2.
Refining and trading drove the rebound: Gas marketing and trading improved significantly, while higher realized refining margins lifted Customers and Products profit by around $2 billion sequentially.
Cash generation strengthened the balance sheet: Operating cash flow was $14.8 billion, and net debt fell $8.4 billion to $13.9 billion; broader financial obligations declined $9.3 billion to $44.3 billion.
Large impairment charge: BP recorded $4 billion of post-tax net impairments, mainly in transition businesses, within $5.4 billion of net adverse adjusting items; IFRS profit was $4.7 billion.
Operations improved: Upstream production was 2.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, broadly flat sequentially; plant reliability reached 95.3% and refinery availability 96.5%.
Deepwater Horizon liabilities are now a priority: BP intends to use excess cash flow to address its remaining liabilities in full; it expects financial obligations to reach $33 billion-$35 billion by year-end 2026.
Portfolio and shareholder returns: BP expects around $8 billion of divestment and other proceeds in 2026 and declared a Q3 dividend of $0.0866 per ordinary share.

Analysis

BP’s Q3 was a sharp sequential earnings and cash-flow rebound, helped by an improved operating contribution to a supportive but volatile market. Reported EPS of $3.26 exceeded the $2.66 consensus by 22.56%. Underlying replacement cost profit rose to $8.5 billion from $5.8 billion in Q2, while underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax increased to $13.4 billion from $10.3 billion. The call did not provide a Q3 year-ago comparison for these profit measures; the year-over-year figure highlighted was adjusted free cash flow of around $18 billion for the first nine months, up 75%.

Higher refining margins and gas marketing and trading were the main earnings catalysts, with improved reliability helping BP capture the environment. Strong cash generation cut net debt to $13.9 billion and broader financial obligations to $44.3 billion. But the quarter also carried a $4 billion post-tax impairment, mainly in transition businesses, and management said obligations remain too high. BP’s next phase is framed around portfolio simplification, capital discipline and resolving remaining Deepwater Horizon liabilities. Its December strategy update is expected to set out the financial framework and performance targets; for Q4, BP expects a significantly lower Customers result and an effective tax rate of 31%-34% for full-year 2026.

Earnings and trading

The earnings rebound came primarily from gas marketing and trading and refining, rather than broad-based strength across every business. Group underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax was $13.4 billion, up from $10.3 billion in Q2, and underlying replacement cost profit was $8.5 billion. The $4.7 billion IFRS profit also reflected inventory holding gains, while adverse adjusting items weighed heavily.

Gas and low carbon energy: Segment underlying operating profit increased by around $1.1 billion, reflecting significantly higher gas marketing and trading and higher realizations, including the effect of non-Henry Hub gas prices.
Customers and products: Segment profit increased by around $2 billion. Products benefited from significantly higher realized refining margins; Customers profit fell around $500 million as weaker fuels margins and lower Castrol and midstream results outweighed higher volumes and lower underlying costs.
Reported earnings: Net adverse adjusting items were around $5.4 billion, including $4 billion of post-tax net impairments. After approximately $1.6 billion of inventory holding gains, IFRS profit was $4.7 billion.

Cash and liabilities

Cash generation drove a substantial reduction in leverage, although BP emphasized that its broader obligations remain high. It expects further reductions from cash generation and divestments, but the timing of working-capital movements and the Louisiana settlement remains uncertain.

Cash generation: Operating cash flow was $14.8 billion; underlying cash generation was $15 billion. After $6.6 billion of outflows, including $3 billion of capital expenditure and $1.3 billion of dividends paid, net debt fell around $8.4 billion to $13.9 billion.
Financial obligations: These declined $9.3 billion from Q2 to $44.3 billion. BP expects them to reach around $33 billion-$35 billion by year-end 2026.
Working capital: Q3 saw a $500 million net release, but the first-nine-month cumulative build was $6.5 billion. BP estimated a further release of around $500 million for the rest of the year, with timing dependent on prices and the wider environment.
Deepwater Horizon: After agreeing with Louisiana to accelerate delivery of settlement commitments, BP said it intends to prioritize excess cash flow toward addressing its remaining liabilities in full. Timing of the recently announced $350 million Louisiana settlement payment is still undetermined.

Portfolio reset

BP continued to simplify its asset base and tighten investment discipline, with the impairment charge underscoring the cost of returns that fell short of expectations. The company said it is reviewing assets for competitive cash generation, strategic fit and whether BP is the best owner.

Impairments: The $4 billion post-tax net impairment charge was mainly attributable to transition businesses, including Lightsource bp and offshore wind.
Divestments: BP completed the Gelsenkirchen refinery disposal, launched sale processes for the U.K. North Sea and Archaea, and agreed to sell its Austria mobility and convenience business. Completion of the Castrol sale was expected imminently.
Proceeds and investments: Full-year 2026 divestment and other proceeds are now expected to be around $8 billion. BP also agreed to bring partners into Kirkuk in Iraq, Tupinambá in Brazil and Conifer in the U.S., and signed agreements to advance an offshore gas development in Venezuela.

Operating performance

Improved reliability helped BP capitalize on market conditions, but management stressed that consistent execution remains a priority. It also acknowledged that tier one and tier two process safety events have increased this year, and said the company is learning from each event.

Upstream: Production was 2.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, broadly flat on Q2. Plant reliability improved to 95.3%, mainly as North Sea and Indonesia outages recovered.
Refining: Throughput was around 1.4 million barrels per day, lower partly because of the Gelsenkirchen divestment. Availability recovered to 96.5%, above BP’s 96% target; first-nine-month utilization was 98%.
Execution risk: An unplanned outage at Rotterdam occurred in October, with the unit expected back online in early November. BP said sustaining improved operating performance remains a key focus.

Capital framework

BP said its December strategy and outlook update will lay out its strategic direction, financial framework, and metrics and targets. Management described a committed dividend as the first call on cash flow, followed by disciplined through-cycle investment, with buybacks available to share upside when appropriate.

Progress against targets: Adjusted free cash flow was around $18 billion year to date, up 75% year on year; net debt of $13.9 billion was below the target range; structural cost reductions were $4 billion, within range; and return on average capital employed was around 18%.
Shareholder return: BP announced a Q3 dividend of $0.0866 per ordinary share.
Near-term outlook: BP expects a significantly lower Customers result in Q4, citing seasonally lower volumes, a lower midstream result and the expected Castrol divestment. Full-year underlying effective tax rate guidance is 31%-34%; income taxes paid are expected to be around $800 million higher in Q4 than Q3.

BP p.l.c.

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